11/17: YanksBlog.com Community Projections 2006 in Review: The Hitters
Posted by: Patrick
As you may remember, from earlier in the year, we had a community projections project where we asked YanksBlog.com readers (as well as YanksBlog.com Bloggers, of course) to make statistical predictions for various players on the Yankees roster. With the season well over, it's time that we take a look back and find out how close or far away we were. Today, we'll take a look at the hitters. We'll have the pitchers in the next few days probably.
Before we get started, I just wanted to thank James for coming up with the idea and getting behind it, compiling the averages and more. Thanks James.
Jorge Posada
Individuals Dead On: James and Mike for runs. Seamus for home runs. SG for OBA.
Jason Giambi
Individuals Dead On: Nobody.
Robinson Cano
Individuals Dead On: Mike for stolen bases.
Derek Jeter
Individuals Dead On: Nobody.
Alex Rodriguez
Individuals Dead On: Nobody.
Hideki Matsui
Individuals Dead On: Nobody.
Johnny Damon
Individuals Dead On: Seamus for OBA.
Gary Sheffield
Individuals Dead On: James for stolen bases.
Andy Phillips
Individuals Dead On: Richard A. Holland for stolen bases.
Bernie Williams
Individuals Dead On: Me for home runs.
Before we get started, I just wanted to thank James for coming up with the idea and getting behind it, compiling the averages and more. Thanks James.
Jorge Posada
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSWe thought he'd bounce back, but he exceeded even our expectations in all categories except for runs. With a few close categories, it was definitely a nice projection.
Projected: 457 69 19 73 0 .266 .363 .443 .806
Actual: 465 65 23 93 3 .277 .374 .492 .867
Individuals Dead On: James and Mike for runs. Seamus for home runs. SG for OBA.
Jason Giambi
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSAnother pretty nice projection, flat out nailing home runs and being 1 off on runs. In the end, because of the higher OPS, I'd have to say that he probably exceeded our expectations ever so slightly.
Projected: 502 91 37 106 0 .280 .428 .534 .962
Actual: 446 92 37 113 2 .253 .413 .558 .971
Individuals Dead On: Nobody.
Robinson Cano
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSDespite the fact that at bats were off by nearly 100, we were dead on for the RBI total and close on home runs and stolen bases. The rest are a different story, thanks to the injury and Cano simply tearing opposing pitchers to shreds.
Projected: 577 87 19 78 6 .300 .333 .476 .809
Actual: 482 62 15 78 5 .342 .365 .525 .890
Individuals Dead On: Mike for stolen bases.
Derek Jeter
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSWe definitely had high expectations for our captain. And, with the exception of runs and home runs, he vastly exceeded them with less ABs.
Projected: 648 123 22 82 18 .311 .393 .464 .857
Actual: 623 118 14 97 34 .344 .417 .483 .900
Individuals Dead On: Nobody.
Alex Rodriguez
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSTo be fair, our projection was "MVP season". 146 RBI? Only 1 player had that in the entire MLB last year (Ryan Howard, 149). A-Rod had a good year, but it wasn't an MVP year and so it was drastically different from what was projected.
Projected: 610 128 50 146 24 .320 .424 .626 1.049
Actual: 572 113 37 121 15 .290 .392 .523 .914
Individuals Dead On: Nobody.
Hideki Matsui
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSWe had pretty high goals in mind in 2006 for Godzilla and, although some of these are pretty close, the moment that he hurt his wrist was the moment that they went to pot.
Projected: 611 104 25 116 3 .304 .373 .484 .857
Actual: 172 32 8 29 1 .302 .393 .494 .887
Individuals Dead On: Nobody.
Johnny Damon
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSFor the contract that he signed, we had pretty reasonable expectations in mind and the projections were pretty much in the ballpark with what he actually did, with the exception of his power numbers which proved to be a surprise.
Projected: 620 122 13 71 19 .303 .364 .432 .797
Actual: 593 115 24 80 25 .285 .359 .482 .841
Individuals Dead On: Seamus for OBA.
Gary Sheffield
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSLike Matsui, Sheffield's injury pretty much shot this projection right out of the water, although we did somehow manage to nail stolen bases.
Projected: 567 106 32 115 5 .291 .383 .505 .888
Actual: 151 22 6 25 5 .298 .355 .450 .806
Individuals Dead On: James for stolen bases.
Andy Phillips
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSEven though we came close on ABs and our projection was fairly modest, it wasn't even close because of Andy's struggles. The OPS was off by 99. Let's just leave it at that.
Projected: 274 46 14 50 2 .267 .336 .449 .785
Actual: 246 30 7 29 3 .240 .281 .394 .676
Individuals Dead On: Richard A. Holland for stolen bases.
Bernie Williams
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSI want to say that our project reflected "guarded optimism" on our part. But, in any case, Bernie played more than we thought he would and he played better than we thought he would, especially in the batting average department. Besides that, though, the projection was pretty good.
Projected: 345 52 14 58 3 .258 .331 .423 .753
Actual: 420 65 12 61 2 .281 .332 .436 .768
Individuals Dead On: Me for home runs.
Seamus wrote: