02/23: THT: Expect A-Rod's Defense To Come Back Strong
Posted by: James
David Gassko at The Hardball Times checks in and notes that they have completed a fairly large and complex project: three years worth of projections for almost 1300 players. Per Dave, they used the most most granular data available to us and complex aging analysis to generate projections three years into the future. From that process he points out ten things that he learned about what could happen next season and two Yankees figure prominently in the article.
He also had some thoughts on Chien-Ming Wang.
Those are the positive points - I'd check out the book (which based on the two annuals I've purchased from THT and the accompanying article sounds great) once it's available to see how the rest of the Yankees project. Until then, I'll refer you to Fangraphs.com
All those projections will be available in the 2007 Season Preview, but here are a few to whet your appetite: The best fielder in the game is Everett, who is projected to be 19 runs above average at shortstop. Scott Rolen does slightly better in terms of runs—he’s at +20—but at an easier position. And guess who else projects to 19 runs above average?
If you guessed Alex Rodriguez … well, you didn’t. But our data shows that A-Rod was so great in 2004-05 that even a poor season last year can’t keep him from being one of the best fielders in baseball. Before you scoff, I’d like to remind you that Rodriguez won two Gold Gloves at shortstop before coming to the Yankees. Would it be that surprising for him to be great at third base as well?
If you guessed Alex Rodriguez … well, you didn’t. But our data shows that A-Rod was so great in 2004-05 that even a poor season last year can’t keep him from being one of the best fielders in baseball. Before you scoff, I’d like to remind you that Rodriguez won two Gold Gloves at shortstop before coming to the Yankees. Would it be that surprising for him to be great at third base as well?
He also had some thoughts on Chien-Ming Wang.
I can’t recall the last time I got so many pissed off e-mails as I did after running a column suggesting that Chien-Ming Wang would see a strong decline next season.
That assumption was based off batted ball data, but only a year’s worth, with some pretty crude assumptions. These projections are based on up to four year’s worth of batted ball data as well as more basic outcome statistics. And the verdict is … Wang is awesome.
We project a 3.82 ERA next season despite a 63/41 K/BB ratio, mainly because Wang is projected to allow just 12 home runs all year.
That assumption was based off batted ball data, but only a year’s worth, with some pretty crude assumptions. These projections are based on up to four year’s worth of batted ball data as well as more basic outcome statistics. And the verdict is … Wang is awesome.
We project a 3.82 ERA next season despite a 63/41 K/BB ratio, mainly because Wang is projected to allow just 12 home runs all year.
Those are the positive points - I'd check out the book (which based on the two annuals I've purchased from THT and the accompanying article sounds great) once it's available to see how the rest of the Yankees project. Until then, I'll refer you to Fangraphs.com
