03/11: YBCP 07: Derek Jeter
Posted by: James
Derek Jeter
Age: 32 Years Old (Turns 33 in June).
Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
Outlook:In 2006, Derek had one of the finest seasons in his already impressive career. It was something of an upset that DJ didn't win the 2006 MVP over Justin Morneau (I'm not saying that Jeter was THE MVP...but he was def. more valuable than Morneau). It was a renaissance of sorts as Jeter put up the second highest OPS+ of his career and won the Silver Slugger at SS with the second highest batting average (second in the AL), OBP and SLG in his career. All of this while surpassing 2,000 hits in his age 32 season.
Derek started off last season with a bang with a ridiculous April and after a brief dip in March, remained on fire throughout the rest of the year. Seriously, look through his splits and it's fairly difficult to find instances where Jeter didn't perform. He hit well on the road (great at home) and against righties (he BOMBED lefties - nice little weapon to have to break up a lefty laden line-up, no?). Heck, his worst month was a .292/.360/.372/.732 line that he put up in May while the next lowest OPS was .813 in June.
So what do we have to think about when considering Jeter's contributions for the coming year? Well, for one thing, most scouts note that good hitters eventually learn more patience at the plate age. Seemingly, that seems to be happening as Jeter, who has always been a hacker, has brought his walk rate up to double digits and has now maintained that rate for the two seasons. Along with that seems to have come an even greater tendency to hit grounders. Jeter has always been a groundball hitter but he's really become more so over the last two years. For the moment, he can beat out some of those grounders but in time, that could prove to be a problem. Finally, you've got to start thinking about some regression to the mean. It's certainly expected (it's not often that someone maintains a .394 BABIP for an entire season) but you know - he's the Captain; it never really surprises me what he is capable of.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
Age: 32 Years Old (Turns 33 in June).
Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
| SEASON | Team | G | AB | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Yankees | 154 | 643 | 188 | 120 | 44 | 1 | 23 | 111 | 78 | 46 | 99 | 23 | 4 | .292 |
| 2005 | Yankees | 159 | 654 | 202 | 153 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 122 | 70 | 77 | 117 | 14 | 5 | .309 |
| 2006 | Yankees | 154 | 623 | 214 | 158 | 39 | 3 | 14 | 118 | 97 | 69 | 102 | 34 | 5 | .343 |
| 2007 | 158 | 644 | 203 | 149 | 35 | 2 | 17 | 117 | 81 | 70 | 111 | 24 | 7 | .315 | |
| 2007 | CHONE | 593 | 183 | 130 | 34 | 3 | 16 | 110 | 70 | 61 | 98 | 18 | 4 | .309 | |
| 2007 | Marcel | 557 | 173 | 123 | 31 | 3 | 16 | 100 | 73 | 56 | 95 | 20 | 4 | .311 | |
| 2007 | ZiPS | 625 | 189 | 137 | 34 | 2 | 16 | 111 | 92 | 66 | 110 | 21 | 4 | .302 |
| SEASON | Team | BB% | K% | BB/K | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Yankees | 6.7 % | 15.4 % | 0.46 | .352 | .471 | .823 | .179 | .317 |
| 2005 | Yankees | 10.5 % | 17.9 % | 0.66 | .389 | .450 | .839 | .141 | .353 |
| 2006 | Yankees | 10.0 % | 16.4 % | 0.68 | .417 | .483 | .900 | .140 | .394 |
| 2007 | 9.8 % | 17.2 % | 0.63 | .393 | .455 | .848 | .140 | .360 | |
| 2007 | CHONE | 9.3 % | 16.5 % | 0.62 | .383 | .457 | .840 | .148 | .349 |
| 2007 | Marcel | 9.1 % | 17.1 % | 0.59 | .382 | .463 | .845 | .153 | .352 |
| 2007 | ZiPS | 9.6 % | 17.6 % | 0.60 | .378 | .440 | .818 | .138 | .347 |
Outlook:In 2006, Derek had one of the finest seasons in his already impressive career. It was something of an upset that DJ didn't win the 2006 MVP over Justin Morneau (I'm not saying that Jeter was THE MVP...but he was def. more valuable than Morneau). It was a renaissance of sorts as Jeter put up the second highest OPS+ of his career and won the Silver Slugger at SS with the second highest batting average (second in the AL), OBP and SLG in his career. All of this while surpassing 2,000 hits in his age 32 season.
Derek started off last season with a bang with a ridiculous April and after a brief dip in March, remained on fire throughout the rest of the year. Seriously, look through his splits and it's fairly difficult to find instances where Jeter didn't perform. He hit well on the road (great at home) and against righties (he BOMBED lefties - nice little weapon to have to break up a lefty laden line-up, no?). Heck, his worst month was a .292/.360/.372/.732 line that he put up in May while the next lowest OPS was .813 in June.
So what do we have to think about when considering Jeter's contributions for the coming year? Well, for one thing, most scouts note that good hitters eventually learn more patience at the plate age. Seemingly, that seems to be happening as Jeter, who has always been a hacker, has brought his walk rate up to double digits and has now maintained that rate for the two seasons. Along with that seems to have come an even greater tendency to hit grounders. Jeter has always been a groundball hitter but he's really become more so over the last two years. For the moment, he can beat out some of those grounders but in time, that could prove to be a problem. Finally, you've got to start thinking about some regression to the mean. It's certainly expected (it's not often that someone maintains a .394 BABIP for an entire season) but you know - he's the Captain; it never really surprises me what he is capable of.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
| AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|
Patrick wrote:
628 AB
121 R
19 HR
91 RBI
25 SB
.319 AVG
.399 OBA
.483 SLG