03/12: YBCP 07: Alex Rodriguez
Posted by: James
Alex Rodriguez
Age: 31 Years Old (Turns 32 in July - Don't forget this; it's not like his career is winding down - this man has plenty left in the tank).
Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
Outlook: First off, let me apologize. It was our fault that A-Rod had the season that he had. Our very optimistic predictions for what he would do last year was the straw that broke the camel's back. He can take a lot...but the burden of trying to reach our expectations did him in. Luckily, he & I have sat down and talked about realistic goals to make this relationship work.
In all seriousness though, last season wasn't a great one for Alex. Still, the man finished with a .290 /.392/.523/.915 line with 35 HRs, 121 RBIs and 140 OPS+. It's only because of A-Rod's stratospheric highs and immense talent that we believe that 2005 was a "bad year". He went through his share of struggles and was (in my mind) unfairly reprimanded by fans, by Joe Torre (#8 slot...that was not very classy, Joe) and MLB (Joe Crede miraculously wins the Silver Slugger).
As a result of all this negativity, I've run into a lot of people who are really down on Alex and what he provides to the Yankees...to which I have to reply...really? You're going to start to devalue A-Rod already? I mean, come on. He had one very bad month in June of last year. Here's an interesting little exercise; take out those 22 horrible, no good games in July and look at his numbers before that stretch (.303/.404/.554/.958 with a HR every 15 ABs) and after (.306/.398/.556/.953 with a HR every 15.16 ABs). Remarkably consistent, no? There isn't a rational fan alive who wouldn't take that performance from his third baseman every single year. Oh, and you know what I recall - there was another guy on the team who had a horrid stretch a couple years back (and for longer than one month too). If you can't cut A-Rod the same amount of slack, fine - at least give him some.
In any case, going into this year, A-Rod's apparently lost a decent amount of weight and honed his approach at the plate with new batting coach Kevin Long. I think that the lower weight will really help him in the defense dept. (as will having his buddy Minky at first instead of Giambi). How it affects his swing is something that I'm probably not qualified to address. However, if a reduction in weight helps him to get the bat on the ball quicker, thus leading to more hits (depending on BABIP of course), harder hits and less Ks (as Steve L. points out, his K rate has been steadily increasing the past 4 years), I'm all for it; now go do your thing Alex.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
Age: 31 Years Old (Turns 32 in July - Don't forget this; it's not like his career is winding down - this man has plenty left in the tank).
Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
SEASON | Team | G | AB | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 | Yankees | 155 | 601 | 172 | 110 | 24 | 2 | 36 | 112 | 106 | 80 | 131 | 28 | 4 | .286 |
2005 | Yankees | 162 | 605 | 194 | 116 | 29 | 1 | 48 | 124 | 130 | 91 | 139 | 21 | 6 | .321 |
2006 | Yankees | 154 | 572 | 166 | 104 | 26 | 1 | 35 | 113 | 121 | 90 | 139 | 15 | 4 | .290 |
2007 | Bill James | 159 | 607 | 178 | 106 | 29 | 1 | 42 | 119 | 124 | 91 | 143 | 16 | 6 | .293 |
2007 | CHONE | 556 | 164 | 99 | 26 | 2 | 37 | 110 | 104 | 79 | 121 | 13 | 4 | .295 | |
2007 | Marcel | 521 | 154 | 96 | 24 | 1 | 33 | 100 | 102 | 74 | 119 | 17 | 4 | .296 | |
2007 | ZiPS | 589 | 169 | 110 | 26 | 1 | 32 | 108 | 126 | 88 | 138 | 16 | 3 | .287 |
SEASON | Team | BB% | K% | BB/K | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 | Yankees | 11.7 % | 21.8 % | 0.61 | .375 | .512 | .888 | .226 | .313 |
2005 | Yankees | 13.1 % | 23.0 % | 0.65 | .421 | .610 | 1.031 | .289 | .349 |
2006 | Yankees | 13.6 % | 24.3 % | 0.65 | .392 | .523 | .914 | .233 | .329 |
2007 | Bill James | 13.0 % | 23.6 % | 0.64 | .395 | .552 | .947 | .259 | .322 |
2007 | CHONE | 12.4 % | 21.8 % | 0.65 | .392 | .549 | .941 | .254 | .319 |
2007 | Marcel | 12.4 % | 22.8 % | 0.62 | .390 | .536 | .925 | .240 | .328 |
2007 | ZiPS | 13.0 % | 23.4 % | 0.64 | .387 | .497 | .884 | .210 | .327 |
Outlook: First off, let me apologize. It was our fault that A-Rod had the season that he had. Our very optimistic predictions for what he would do last year was the straw that broke the camel's back. He can take a lot...but the burden of trying to reach our expectations did him in. Luckily, he & I have sat down and talked about realistic goals to make this relationship work.
In all seriousness though, last season wasn't a great one for Alex. Still, the man finished with a .290 /.392/.523/.915 line with 35 HRs, 121 RBIs and 140 OPS+. It's only because of A-Rod's stratospheric highs and immense talent that we believe that 2005 was a "bad year". He went through his share of struggles and was (in my mind) unfairly reprimanded by fans, by Joe Torre (#8 slot...that was not very classy, Joe) and MLB (Joe Crede miraculously wins the Silver Slugger).
As a result of all this negativity, I've run into a lot of people who are really down on Alex and what he provides to the Yankees...to which I have to reply...really? You're going to start to devalue A-Rod already? I mean, come on. He had one very bad month in June of last year. Here's an interesting little exercise; take out those 22 horrible, no good games in July and look at his numbers before that stretch (.303/.404/.554/.958 with a HR every 15 ABs) and after (.306/.398/.556/.953 with a HR every 15.16 ABs). Remarkably consistent, no? There isn't a rational fan alive who wouldn't take that performance from his third baseman every single year. Oh, and you know what I recall - there was another guy on the team who had a horrid stretch a couple years back (and for longer than one month too). If you can't cut A-Rod the same amount of slack, fine - at least give him some.
In any case, going into this year, A-Rod's apparently lost a decent amount of weight and honed his approach at the plate with new batting coach Kevin Long. I think that the lower weight will really help him in the defense dept. (as will having his buddy Minky at first instead of Giambi). How it affects his swing is something that I'm probably not qualified to address. However, if a reduction in weight helps him to get the bat on the ball quicker, thus leading to more hits (depending on BABIP of course), harder hits and less Ks (as Steve L. points out, his K rate has been steadily increasing the past 4 years), I'm all for it; now go do your thing Alex.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
---|
Mike A. wrote:
110
180
42
135
21
.305
.400
.610
It's hard not to expect great things from him...