03/22: YBCP 07: Andy Pettitte
Posted by: James
Andy Pettitte
Age: 34 Years Old (Turns 35 in June).
Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
Outlook: For the Yankees' biggest acquisition of the offseason, 2006 was certainly an up and down season. Actually, check that. Pettitte had one heck of a bad start and after his 13th start of the year on June 3rd, his line stood at 4-7 with a 6.03 ERA. From that point on, he was lights out and over his last 22 starts and 136.2 innings, he gave up 137 hits, walked 43 and struck out 122 while maintaining a 3.16 ERA. That was impressive enough for the Yankees to swoop in and bring Andy back for a cool 16 million (and an player option next year for the same).
Of course, there are risks with all pitchers and Pettitte is no exception. First, there's the question of his age. Andy is certainly no spring chicken and has 2,312 regular season and 212 postseason innings of wear and tear on his arm. Then you have the issue of Andy's transition back to the American League after 3 years in the weaker league (trading in having to face a pitcher versus a DH is no joke). Other concerns revolve around the health of Andy's elbow though he's pitched two consecutive 200 IP seasons (222, 214 IP respectively) after an injury plagued 2004.
After considering all that, I guess the final question becomes; if healthy, which 34 year old NL pitcher are we now discounting? The workhorse who averaged out to a 4.20 ERA last season or the #1/#2 pitcher who threw up a 3.2 ERA over his last 22 starts? When you add in a .5 run league adjustment, you're talking about a fairly large difference in production. In either case, for this Yankee fan, it doesn't matter that Andy and his family actually live in Houston...it's nice to see him back home in the Bronx.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
Age: 34 Years Old (Turns 35 in June).
Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
SEASON | Team | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2003 | Yankees | 21 | 8 | 4.02 | 33 | 33 | 1 | 208.1 | 227 | 109 | 93 | 21 | 50 | 180 |
2004 | Astros | 6 | 4 | 3.90 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 83.0 | 71 | 37 | 36 | 8 | 31 | 79 |
2005 | Astros | 17 | 9 | 2.39 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 222.1 | 188 | 66 | 59 | 17 | 41 | 171 |
2006 | Astros | 14 | 13 | 4.20 | 36 | 35 | 2 | 214.1 | 238 | 114 | 100 | 27 | 70 | 178 |
2007 | Bill James | 13 | 11 | 3.69 | 33 | 33 | 210.0 | 214 | 19 | 60 | 164 | |||
2007 | CHONE | 4.10 | 193.0 | 207 | 96 | 88 | 22 | 57 | 136 | |||||
2007 | Marcel | 12 | 10 | 3.95 | 189.0 | 193 | 90 | 83 | 21 | 57 | 150 | |||
2007 | ZiPS | 15 | 9 | 4.10 | 32 | 31 | 193.0 | 204 | 96 | 88 | 24 | 50 | 140 |
SEASON | Team | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | AVG | WHIP | BABIP | LOB% | FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2003 | Yankees | 7.78 | 2.16 | 3.60 | 0.91 | .279 | 1.33 | .336 | 68.0 % | 3.52 |
2004 | Astros | 8.57 | 3.36 | 2.55 | 0.87 | .233 | 1.23 | .289 | 71.6 % | 3.67 |
2005 | Astros | 6.92 | 1.66 | 4.17 | 0.69 | .231 | 1.03 | .273 | 79.7 % | 3.25 |
2006 | Astros | 7.47 | 2.94 | 2.54 | 1.13 | .283 | 1.44 | .331 | 72.0 % | 4.18 |
2007 | Bill James | 7.03 | 2.57 | 2.73 | 0.81 | .265 | 1.30 | .313 | 3.71 | |
2007 | CHONE | 6.34 | 2.66 | 2.39 | 1.03 | .276 | 1.37 | .312 | 72.6 % | 4.24 |
2007 | Marcel | 7.14 | 2.71 | 2.63 | 1.00 | .266 | 1.32 | .310 | 72.9 % | 4.01 |
2007 | ZiPS | 6.53 | 2.33 | 2.80 | 1.12 | .273 | 1.32 | .308 | 71.7 % | 4.14 |
Outlook: For the Yankees' biggest acquisition of the offseason, 2006 was certainly an up and down season. Actually, check that. Pettitte had one heck of a bad start and after his 13th start of the year on June 3rd, his line stood at 4-7 with a 6.03 ERA. From that point on, he was lights out and over his last 22 starts and 136.2 innings, he gave up 137 hits, walked 43 and struck out 122 while maintaining a 3.16 ERA. That was impressive enough for the Yankees to swoop in and bring Andy back for a cool 16 million (and an player option next year for the same).
Of course, there are risks with all pitchers and Pettitte is no exception. First, there's the question of his age. Andy is certainly no spring chicken and has 2,312 regular season and 212 postseason innings of wear and tear on his arm. Then you have the issue of Andy's transition back to the American League after 3 years in the weaker league (trading in having to face a pitcher versus a DH is no joke). Other concerns revolve around the health of Andy's elbow though he's pitched two consecutive 200 IP seasons (222, 214 IP respectively) after an injury plagued 2004.
After considering all that, I guess the final question becomes; if healthy, which 34 year old NL pitcher are we now discounting? The workhorse who averaged out to a 4.20 ERA last season or the #1/#2 pitcher who threw up a 3.2 ERA over his last 22 starts? When you add in a .5 run league adjustment, you're talking about a fairly large difference in production. In either case, for this Yankee fan, it doesn't matter that Andy and his family actually live in Houston...it's nice to see him back home in the Bronx.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
G | GS | Innings | W | L | BB | K | ERA |
---|
Patrick wrote:
33 GS
214.2 IP
17 W
9 L
67 BB
166 K
3.84 ERA