03/25: YBCP 07: Mike Mussina
Posted by: James
Mike Mussina
Age: 38 Years Old (Turns 39 in December).
Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
Outlook: I said at the beginning of the 2006 season that if anyone can figure out a way to work and thrive with a new set of tools, the Moose from Stanford can. At that point, Mussina's fastball was topping out at 90 mph (he had barely even touched that high early on in 2005) when he used to consistently hit the low 90s. I couldn't figure out if his two sub-par seasons were mainly due to injuries or simply erosion of skills.
Well, Moose blew that latter thought right out of the water with a great contract year performance. His final line over 197.1 IP was impressive; 172 strikeouts (8th in the AL), the 4th best ERA in the AL as well as the the 3rd best WHIP and BAA. Though he did show less of a propensity to go long in his starts, he got his K rate back up while driving his BB rate and BAA down. Now what was the cause of the turnaround? Was it the spring training discovery by Jorge Posada that Mussina was tipping his changeup? Was it that Mike was finally healthy for most of the year? Or was it simply the contract year phenomena coming into play? Whatever the case, Mussina was consistently solid for the full year and that translated into a new two-year, $23 million contract in the offseason.
So what can we look forward to from Moose in 2007? Well, if he's healthy, I would expect much of the same from Mussina though there are obviously concerns that need to be factored in. As with Andy Pettitte, age is certainly a concern for Mussina as he's logged 3,210 innings over his career and 135 innings in the postseason. To give you a little perspective, from just the 2002 season on, Mike threw a total of 15,211 pitches and that's even accounting for two years where he had arm troubles. Still, this is Mike Mussina where talking about here...a potential Hall of Famer who could solidify his place in history with two more good seasons. As smart as Moose is, I'd wager that he's well aware of where he stands on the all time ranks and I'm sure that he knows what he needs to do to guarantee himself a trip to Cooperstown...his body just has to cooperate.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
Age: 38 Years Old (Turns 39 in December).
Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
SEASON | Team | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2003 | Yankees | 17 | 8 | 3.40 | 31 | 31 | 2 | 214.2 | 192 | 86 | 81 | 21 | 40 | 195 |
2004 | Yankees | 12 | 9 | 4.59 | 27 | 27 | 1 | 164.2 | 178 | 91 | 84 | 22 | 40 | 132 |
2005 | Yankees | 13 | 8 | 4.41 | 30 | 30 | 2 | 179.2 | 199 | 93 | 88 | 23 | 47 | 142 |
2006 | Yankees | 15 | 7 | 3.51 | 32 | 32 | 1 | 197.1 | 184 | 88 | 77 | 22 | 35 | 172 |
2007 | Bill James | 14 | 7 | 3.60 | 32 | 32 | 190.0 | 188 | 22 | 40 | 161 | |||
2007 | CHONE | 3.77 | 186.0 | 189 | 85 | 78 | 24 | 39 | 146 | |||||
2007 | Marcel | 12 | 8 | 4.27 | 177.0 | 188 | 91 | 84 | 22 | 44 | 141 | |||
2007 | ZiPS | 13 | 8 | 3.91 | 30 | 30 | 184.0 | 189 | 88 | 80 | 21 | 43 | 148 |
SEASON | Team | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | AVG | WHIP | BABIP | LOB% | FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2003 | Yankees | 8.18 | 1.68 | 4.88 | 0.88 | .241 | 1.08 | .294 | 72.5 % | 3.26 |
2004 | Yankees | 7.21 | 2.19 | 3.30 | 1.20 | .277 | 1.32 | .319 | 68.2 % | 4.10 |
2005 | Yankees | 7.11 | 2.35 | 3.02 | 1.15 | .282 | 1.37 | .326 | 72.5 % | 4.19 |
2006 | Yankees | 7.84 | 1.60 | 4.91 | 1.00 | .248 | 1.11 | .296 | 70.4 % | 3.51 |
2007 | Bill James | 7.63 | 1.89 | 4.03 | 1.04 | .260 | 1.20 | .307 | 3.71 | |
2007 | CHONE | 7.06 | 1.89 | 3.74 | 1.16 | .265 | 1.23 | .304 | 74.5 % | 4.05 |
2007 | Marcel | 7.17 | 2.24 | 3.20 | 1.12 | .274 | 1.31 | .317 | 70.8 % | 4.05 |
2007 | ZiPS | 7.24 | 2.10 | 3.44 | 1.03 | .267 | 1.26 | .312 | 71.1 % | 3.78 |
Outlook: I said at the beginning of the 2006 season that if anyone can figure out a way to work and thrive with a new set of tools, the Moose from Stanford can. At that point, Mussina's fastball was topping out at 90 mph (he had barely even touched that high early on in 2005) when he used to consistently hit the low 90s. I couldn't figure out if his two sub-par seasons were mainly due to injuries or simply erosion of skills.
Well, Moose blew that latter thought right out of the water with a great contract year performance. His final line over 197.1 IP was impressive; 172 strikeouts (8th in the AL), the 4th best ERA in the AL as well as the the 3rd best WHIP and BAA. Though he did show less of a propensity to go long in his starts, he got his K rate back up while driving his BB rate and BAA down. Now what was the cause of the turnaround? Was it the spring training discovery by Jorge Posada that Mussina was tipping his changeup? Was it that Mike was finally healthy for most of the year? Or was it simply the contract year phenomena coming into play? Whatever the case, Mussina was consistently solid for the full year and that translated into a new two-year, $23 million contract in the offseason.
So what can we look forward to from Moose in 2007? Well, if he's healthy, I would expect much of the same from Mussina though there are obviously concerns that need to be factored in. As with Andy Pettitte, age is certainly a concern for Mussina as he's logged 3,210 innings over his career and 135 innings in the postseason. To give you a little perspective, from just the 2002 season on, Mike threw a total of 15,211 pitches and that's even accounting for two years where he had arm troubles. Still, this is Mike Mussina where talking about here...a potential Hall of Famer who could solidify his place in history with two more good seasons. As smart as Moose is, I'd wager that he's well aware of where he stands on the all time ranks and I'm sure that he knows what he needs to do to guarantee himself a trip to Cooperstown...his body just has to cooperate.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
G | GS | Innings | W | L | BB | K | ERA |
---|
Patrick wrote:
31 GS
191.1 IP
16 W
8 L
42 BB
161 K
3.79 ERA