12/22: The New Yankees Bullpen
Posted by: Patrick
Coming into this off season, I was pretty content with most of the team. There were two core needs. Center field and the bullpen. Obviously my crazy dream was to be in a world where B.J. Ryan and Flash both wanted to setup for the Magnificent Mo together. And on top of that, for us to get lefty killer Scott Sauerbeck. Well, even though we were in the running for Flash and Sauerbeck, none of that happened. So, what did happen?
We signed Kyle Farnsworth. Sub him into Ryan's spot. When we're talking last year, depending on how you look at it, Farnsworth was actually more dominant than Ryan. Ryan held lefties/righties to a .211/.206 batting average whereas Farnsworth was .197/.165. There are some interesting similarities between Ryan and Farnsworth. They were born about 4 months a part. They both debuted in 1999. They have pitched 415 (Ryan) and 405 games (Farnsworth) since then. From 1999 through 2003, they both had very mixed results year in and year out. From very good years to very bad years. In 2004, Ryan turned it on and hasn't stopped since whereas 2004 was not a good year for Farnsworth. 2005 was his career year, could his 2005 be like Ryan's 2004? i.e., is it the beginning of something great? Imagine what Ryan would have commanded money wise coming off of 2004 with just one great year under his belt like Farnsworth, instead of 2 back to back. Would it have been similar to Farnsworth? Then again, it could be a fluke and he could stink, but there are some similarities there. Maybe Kyle is ready to turn into a dominant reliever year in and year out.
Although he was more dominant than Ryan last year, for their careers, Ryan is much better against lefties (Farnsworth's .255 vs. Ryan's .174), but Farnsworth has been better against righties than Ryan (.239 vs. 247). The Farnsworth signing, if he continues down this road, could turn out to be a good value deal.
Next, Flash left for the Phillies. Now, yes, we brought back Sturtze, but the real guy to watch here is Octavio Dotel. Coming back from Tommy John surgery, Dotel's agent says that he could be back as early as opening day. As great as that would be, the Yankees are being more careful and simply would like to have him back by June. Gordon's career has been roughly twice as long as Dotel's, but in comparing their career numbers, Dotel has been better against hitters from both sides. Lefties/righties: .227/.201 (Dotel), .250/225 (Gordon). Of course, Gordon has been very dominant for the Yankees, as dominant as he's ever been really and during the 2004 and 2005 seasons (Dotel only pitched 15 games in 2005), Gordon was better. Still, Dotel has been fabulous.
Unfortunately Sauerbeck went for Cleveland over New York. The Yankees turned to Mike Myers. Both Sauerbeck and Myers were creamed by righties last year (Myers: .385, Sauerbeck: .377) and for their careers, Myers is terrible against righties (.312) with Sauerbeck being a little more tolerable (.277). Suffice to say, these guys are brought in to get lefties out and that's it. They're here to get the David Ortiz's of the world out. And last year, Myers was actually better. He held lefties to a .158 BAA while Sauerbeck held them to .162. For their careers (Myers having appeared in 324 more games), Sauerbeck has been better (.196) than Myers (.207), but .207 is still great and hey, by the time Sauerbeck has made up those 324 games, he may well be up there.
With that in mind, the trio of Farnsworth, Dotel and Myers will make less this year than B.J. Ryan's contract pays him on average each year (it's heavily back loaded).
On top of Myers, we traded for another lefty in Ron Villone. Villone's a more "conservative" lefty as his lefty/right splits are not as dramatic as Myers. He can reasonably handle righties. Last year the split was .222/.258 and for his career, it's .247/.258. So, whereas Myers is the guy to go to for lefties, perhaps Villone is the guy to go to when you want to have a better chance against a lefty while being able to leave him in for that next hitter that happens to be a righty. Villone will help bridge the gap while we wait for Dotel to be ready.
So, let's compare this year with last year. Last year's bullpen consisted of:
Mariano Rivera, Tom Gordon, Tanyon Sturtze and a mixture of Al Leiter, Felix Rodriguez, Scott Proctor, Aaron Small, Paul Quantrill, Buddy Groom, Alan Embree, Mike Stanton and Wayne Franklin.
This year's bullpen will (hopefully) consist of something like:
Mariano Rivera, Kyle Farnsworth, Octavio Dotel, Ron Villone, Mike Myers, Aaron Small and a mixture of Tanyon Sturtze, Jaret Wright, Ramiro Mendoza, Scott Proctor and others from the minors (Colter Bean?).
So, have we improved? Surprisingly (to myself) after looking at it all, I have to say that we definitely have. We have a lefty in Villone that is better than any of the lefty specialists that we ran through NY last year and he's not even our lefty specialist. We've successfully rebuilt the bullpen and we didn't go crazy money wise. All of the new guys we've brought in combined won't make much more than Ryan does (with the yearly average of his deal). Farnsworth may or may not work out (like anyone), but when you compare it to Ryan, there is potential for a real value signing, like I said. Dotel was cheap ($2 million plus incentives). Villone ($1.7) and Myers ($1.15) are similarly cheap. I think Cashman deserves a lot of credit.
So, what do you think? Are we better off than we were last year in the pen?
We signed Kyle Farnsworth. Sub him into Ryan's spot. When we're talking last year, depending on how you look at it, Farnsworth was actually more dominant than Ryan. Ryan held lefties/righties to a .211/.206 batting average whereas Farnsworth was .197/.165. There are some interesting similarities between Ryan and Farnsworth. They were born about 4 months a part. They both debuted in 1999. They have pitched 415 (Ryan) and 405 games (Farnsworth) since then. From 1999 through 2003, they both had very mixed results year in and year out. From very good years to very bad years. In 2004, Ryan turned it on and hasn't stopped since whereas 2004 was not a good year for Farnsworth. 2005 was his career year, could his 2005 be like Ryan's 2004? i.e., is it the beginning of something great? Imagine what Ryan would have commanded money wise coming off of 2004 with just one great year under his belt like Farnsworth, instead of 2 back to back. Would it have been similar to Farnsworth? Then again, it could be a fluke and he could stink, but there are some similarities there. Maybe Kyle is ready to turn into a dominant reliever year in and year out.
Although he was more dominant than Ryan last year, for their careers, Ryan is much better against lefties (Farnsworth's .255 vs. Ryan's .174), but Farnsworth has been better against righties than Ryan (.239 vs. 247). The Farnsworth signing, if he continues down this road, could turn out to be a good value deal.
Next, Flash left for the Phillies. Now, yes, we brought back Sturtze, but the real guy to watch here is Octavio Dotel. Coming back from Tommy John surgery, Dotel's agent says that he could be back as early as opening day. As great as that would be, the Yankees are being more careful and simply would like to have him back by June. Gordon's career has been roughly twice as long as Dotel's, but in comparing their career numbers, Dotel has been better against hitters from both sides. Lefties/righties: .227/.201 (Dotel), .250/225 (Gordon). Of course, Gordon has been very dominant for the Yankees, as dominant as he's ever been really and during the 2004 and 2005 seasons (Dotel only pitched 15 games in 2005), Gordon was better. Still, Dotel has been fabulous.
Unfortunately Sauerbeck went for Cleveland over New York. The Yankees turned to Mike Myers. Both Sauerbeck and Myers were creamed by righties last year (Myers: .385, Sauerbeck: .377) and for their careers, Myers is terrible against righties (.312) with Sauerbeck being a little more tolerable (.277). Suffice to say, these guys are brought in to get lefties out and that's it. They're here to get the David Ortiz's of the world out. And last year, Myers was actually better. He held lefties to a .158 BAA while Sauerbeck held them to .162. For their careers (Myers having appeared in 324 more games), Sauerbeck has been better (.196) than Myers (.207), but .207 is still great and hey, by the time Sauerbeck has made up those 324 games, he may well be up there.
With that in mind, the trio of Farnsworth, Dotel and Myers will make less this year than B.J. Ryan's contract pays him on average each year (it's heavily back loaded).
On top of Myers, we traded for another lefty in Ron Villone. Villone's a more "conservative" lefty as his lefty/right splits are not as dramatic as Myers. He can reasonably handle righties. Last year the split was .222/.258 and for his career, it's .247/.258. So, whereas Myers is the guy to go to for lefties, perhaps Villone is the guy to go to when you want to have a better chance against a lefty while being able to leave him in for that next hitter that happens to be a righty. Villone will help bridge the gap while we wait for Dotel to be ready.
So, let's compare this year with last year. Last year's bullpen consisted of:
Mariano Rivera, Tom Gordon, Tanyon Sturtze and a mixture of Al Leiter, Felix Rodriguez, Scott Proctor, Aaron Small, Paul Quantrill, Buddy Groom, Alan Embree, Mike Stanton and Wayne Franklin.
This year's bullpen will (hopefully) consist of something like:
Mariano Rivera, Kyle Farnsworth, Octavio Dotel, Ron Villone, Mike Myers, Aaron Small and a mixture of Tanyon Sturtze, Jaret Wright, Ramiro Mendoza, Scott Proctor and others from the minors (Colter Bean?).
So, have we improved? Surprisingly (to myself) after looking at it all, I have to say that we definitely have. We have a lefty in Villone that is better than any of the lefty specialists that we ran through NY last year and he's not even our lefty specialist. We've successfully rebuilt the bullpen and we didn't go crazy money wise. All of the new guys we've brought in combined won't make much more than Ryan does (with the yearly average of his deal). Farnsworth may or may not work out (like anyone), but when you compare it to Ryan, there is potential for a real value signing, like I said. Dotel was cheap ($2 million plus incentives). Villone ($1.7) and Myers ($1.15) are similarly cheap. I think Cashman deserves a lot of credit.
So, what do you think? Are we better off than we were last year in the pen?
joe wrote: