10/17: Plan B
Posted by: Patrick
What happens if, heaven forbid, Posada, A-Rod, Pettitte and Mo all leave? What do we do? Let's discuss the options that we have in our system and via free agency. Trades are a little too speculative, so I'm going to avoid them. That said, if we do lose all of these guys, we could very well turn our deep farm system into some players we can use now. I'm not much of a prospect guy, so I asked James those questions and he contributed to this post, as well.
Posada
He becomes the best free agent catcher by far. The rest of the free agent class is a whole lot of nothing. The bottom line is that if Jorge walks, Yankees fans need to curb the expectations that they have for a catcher - a lot. Offensively, at least. Because nothing else out there is going to produce like Jorge has. Not even close. Internally, we don't have anything. We need to bring someone in. The scary thing is that Jose Molina could be one of the best available. Nothing against Jose, but let's be honest. He's a career .243 hitter with a .279 OBA and .345 SLG. He can't hit. And that's like every catcher available.
The only other option I see, perhaps a crazy one - definitely a risky one, would be Michael Barrett. His personality is certainly questionable, but he hit .307 with a .367 OBA in 2006. He was far off those numbers this year, hitting .243 with a .281 OBA. But, his lifetime numbers are .266 and .322. He may be willing to take a one year deal to try to have a "walk off year" and get himself back on the map after this poor season and his negative exit from Chicago. He could be the best offensive catcher on the market not named Jorge. I'll take a shot at that.
A-Rod
Internally, Wilson Betemit could be an option. He'll be 26 on opening day. The most at bats he's had in a season is 373 in 2006, split between the Braves and Dodgers. He hit .263 with a .326 OBA, 18 homers and 53 RBIs in 373 at bats. In 2005, he hit .305 with a .356 OBA in 246 ABs. Third base is the position that he has spent the most time at (216 games). We don't have anyone that can come in from the minors and help us.
In free agency, there are really 2 guys that catch my eye. The first is Mike Lowell. There is one huge problem with Lowell - he played above himself this year, hitting .324 with 21 home runs, 120 RBIs and a .378 OBA. He's just not that good. If his contract reflects that sort of player, it'd be stupid to sign him. We'd just be setting ourselves up for another bad contract. So, I'll pass.
The other one is Pedro Feliz of the Giants. Yeah, I know, his average was .253 and his OBA was .290. But, he has had 4 straight years of between 20 and 22 home runs with between 72 and 98 RBIs. Plus, he's playing in more of a pitchers park than Yankee Stadium. So, he does drive in runs and he is a very good defender, from what I've read. He could be a dark horse. Once we get over the fact that he's not A-Rod and he doesn't get on base a lot, we may be able to appreciate the fact that he produces some runs and plays good D. He could be an affordable, durable and not ancient option.
That said, I think I'll take Betemit. Who knows what he'll do, but I'd like to find out. With him coming off the bench, we'll need to sure it up.
Pettitte
We already have Mike Mussina on the roster, so that would be a natural fill in, giving us a rotation of Wang, Hughes, Joba, Kennedy and Moose. But, Hughes and Joba will most likely have innings restraints on them, placing us in need of another starter or, more likely, a tag team of spot starters. From within, to start, perhaps someone like Kei Igawa, Steven White or Matt DeSalvo due to their AAA experience. Later in the year, we would be more likely to see one of the more promising talents - like Alan Horne, Jeff Marquez or Tyler Clippard.
Like Jorge, Pettitte would become the best available at his position if he doesn't come back to us. Beyond him, there isn't a heck of a lot that is very far above average. A lot of older and/or mediocre guys. Kyle Lohse, Paul Byrd, Freddy Garcia - take your pick. I would go with what we have.
Rivera
Kyle Farnsworth has been a closer before... just kidding. Francisco Cordero is absolutely the guy to sign. He's never played for a big market, but he has pitched 13 games in Yankee Stadium and has a 2.08 ERA. He has a 3.38 ERA in Fenway. He will be 32 years old on opening day and has put together a very good career. He has never had the opportunity to pitch in the postseason and this may be his big opportunity to choose his destination. So, if he wants to get a ring, he may be looking to come to a contender.
The Yankees have some talented youngsters - J.B. Cox, Humberto Sanchez, Mark Melancon - but their time isn't now. Not at closer, anyway. Sign Cordero and allow one of them to grow into the role at their own pace, under him. Melancon could be the first to get a shot at Major League hitters.
Looking at this, the hardest guy to replace is going to be Posada, followed by A-Rod and then probably Mo and Pettitte. Let's hope we don't have to go without any of them.
Posada
He becomes the best free agent catcher by far. The rest of the free agent class is a whole lot of nothing. The bottom line is that if Jorge walks, Yankees fans need to curb the expectations that they have for a catcher - a lot. Offensively, at least. Because nothing else out there is going to produce like Jorge has. Not even close. Internally, we don't have anything. We need to bring someone in. The scary thing is that Jose Molina could be one of the best available. Nothing against Jose, but let's be honest. He's a career .243 hitter with a .279 OBA and .345 SLG. He can't hit. And that's like every catcher available.
The only other option I see, perhaps a crazy one - definitely a risky one, would be Michael Barrett. His personality is certainly questionable, but he hit .307 with a .367 OBA in 2006. He was far off those numbers this year, hitting .243 with a .281 OBA. But, his lifetime numbers are .266 and .322. He may be willing to take a one year deal to try to have a "walk off year" and get himself back on the map after this poor season and his negative exit from Chicago. He could be the best offensive catcher on the market not named Jorge. I'll take a shot at that.
A-Rod
Internally, Wilson Betemit could be an option. He'll be 26 on opening day. The most at bats he's had in a season is 373 in 2006, split between the Braves and Dodgers. He hit .263 with a .326 OBA, 18 homers and 53 RBIs in 373 at bats. In 2005, he hit .305 with a .356 OBA in 246 ABs. Third base is the position that he has spent the most time at (216 games). We don't have anyone that can come in from the minors and help us.
In free agency, there are really 2 guys that catch my eye. The first is Mike Lowell. There is one huge problem with Lowell - he played above himself this year, hitting .324 with 21 home runs, 120 RBIs and a .378 OBA. He's just not that good. If his contract reflects that sort of player, it'd be stupid to sign him. We'd just be setting ourselves up for another bad contract. So, I'll pass.
The other one is Pedro Feliz of the Giants. Yeah, I know, his average was .253 and his OBA was .290. But, he has had 4 straight years of between 20 and 22 home runs with between 72 and 98 RBIs. Plus, he's playing in more of a pitchers park than Yankee Stadium. So, he does drive in runs and he is a very good defender, from what I've read. He could be a dark horse. Once we get over the fact that he's not A-Rod and he doesn't get on base a lot, we may be able to appreciate the fact that he produces some runs and plays good D. He could be an affordable, durable and not ancient option.
That said, I think I'll take Betemit. Who knows what he'll do, but I'd like to find out. With him coming off the bench, we'll need to sure it up.
Pettitte
We already have Mike Mussina on the roster, so that would be a natural fill in, giving us a rotation of Wang, Hughes, Joba, Kennedy and Moose. But, Hughes and Joba will most likely have innings restraints on them, placing us in need of another starter or, more likely, a tag team of spot starters. From within, to start, perhaps someone like Kei Igawa, Steven White or Matt DeSalvo due to their AAA experience. Later in the year, we would be more likely to see one of the more promising talents - like Alan Horne, Jeff Marquez or Tyler Clippard.
Like Jorge, Pettitte would become the best available at his position if he doesn't come back to us. Beyond him, there isn't a heck of a lot that is very far above average. A lot of older and/or mediocre guys. Kyle Lohse, Paul Byrd, Freddy Garcia - take your pick. I would go with what we have.
Rivera
Kyle Farnsworth has been a closer before... just kidding. Francisco Cordero is absolutely the guy to sign. He's never played for a big market, but he has pitched 13 games in Yankee Stadium and has a 2.08 ERA. He has a 3.38 ERA in Fenway. He will be 32 years old on opening day and has put together a very good career. He has never had the opportunity to pitch in the postseason and this may be his big opportunity to choose his destination. So, if he wants to get a ring, he may be looking to come to a contender.
The Yankees have some talented youngsters - J.B. Cox, Humberto Sanchez, Mark Melancon - but their time isn't now. Not at closer, anyway. Sign Cordero and allow one of them to grow into the role at their own pace, under him. Melancon could be the first to get a shot at Major League hitters.
Looking at this, the hardest guy to replace is going to be Posada, followed by A-Rod and then probably Mo and Pettitte. Let's hope we don't have to go without any of them.
Seamus wrote:
Also, I don't think Michael Barrett is really a viable option. As far as free agents go, he might be the best available, but they'd be better off trying to upgrade via trade if Posada isn't back.
Either way, I see those two as a lock to be back anyway. No way somebody being paid to be a Major League GM doesn't use all available resources to keep guys like that, and the Yankees certainly have the resources.