Mariano Rivera
Age: 37 Years Old (Turns 38 in November).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON Team W L ERA G SV BS IP H R ER HR BB SO
2004 Yankees 4 2 1.94 74 53 4 78.2 65 17 17 3 20 66
2005 Yankees 7 4 1.38 71 43 4 78.1 50 18 12 2 18 80
2006 Yankees 5 5 1.80 63 34 3 75.0 61 16 15 3 11 55
2007 Bill James 5 2 2.57 60 42   70.0 56     3 15 60
2007 CHONE     3.04       77.0 70 28 26 6 17 58
2007 Marcel 5 4 3.09   28   70.0 63 25 24 5 18 55
2007 ZiPS 8 1 2.01 68     76.0 61 18 17 3 15 66

SEASON Team K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP
2004 Yankees 7.55 2.29 3.30 0.34 .227 1.08 .285 85.1 % 2.97
2005 Yankees 9.19 2.07 4.44 0.23 .185 0.87 .254 78.0 % 2.33
2006 Yankees 6.60 1.32 5.00 0.36 .224 0.96 .270 83.8 % 2.89
2007 Bill James 7.71 1.93 4.00 0.39 .221 1.01 .278   2.86
2007 CHONE 6.78 1.99 3.41 0.70 .244 1.13 .287 76.3 % 3.52
2007 Marcel 7.07 2.31 3.06 0.64 .242 1.16 .289 76.9 % 3.50
2007 ZiPS 7.82 1.78 4.40 0.36 .222 1.00 .281 80.8 % 2.57

Outlook: I'm blatantly ripping off what I wrote about Mariano last year...if only because Mo keeps raising the bar. I mean, we all know what Rivera has done to this point in his career; 2.29 ERA, 600 GF, 413 SVs. In 881 innings, 691 Hits, 783 Ks, 226 BBs, 45 HRs. 8-1 with 34 SVs and a 0.80 ERA in 113 postseason innings. Simply staggering numbers...and it's not like the man has slowed down. It's actually even more impressive when you remember that the whispers about the end started when Rivera posted ERAs over 2 for all three years between the 2000 and 2002 seasons and lost part of the 2002 season to injury. Since then, the numbers don't lie: 272 G, 303 Innings, 237 Hits, 264 Ks, 59 BBs - 252 GF, 170 SV - 1.69 ERA, 7.9 K and 1.8 BB per 9 and .33 HRs a game. Just...wow.

Last year was much of the same from Mo. As with 2005, Mo started out slow and then was a steamroller for the rest of the year (take out the first six games of the season and his line was a 1.46 ERA, 51 hits, 9 BBs and 48Ks in 67.2 innings). However, there were some issues as Rivera was out with elbow trouble for much of September. Still, 34 saves compared to 3 blown ones is not too shabby, especially if you conisder that Joe didn't take his own "I'm going to lean on Rivera less" advice to heart. Mariano missed just about 3 weeks and yet only pitched in 8 less games and 3 less innings than 2005.

In 2007, I really do believe that Mariano will continue to excel and honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if he has a better year. Here's my reasoning; a) it's a walk year (if he signs somewhere else...wait, no, not even going to think about it) and b) the addition of Luis Vizcaino solidifies a bullpen that for much of last year didn't have a set third guy after Proctor and Farnsworth. If Vizcaino doesn't work out or Torre doesn't want to give him the opportunity, there will still be a full year of Brian Bruney and if that fails, Chris Britton, et. al. are waiting in the wings. Finally, the talk of adding a change-up to Mariano's arsenal doesn't hurt matters either. It doesn't matter if the pitch never sees the the light of day...the perception is what matters, though it's not like he needs the help.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G Innings W L BB KSVBlSv ERA