03/07: YBCP 07: Jorge Posada
Posted by: James
Here's the basics of what we're trying to do. All of these posts will remain open until right before the beginning of the season.
Jorge Posada - Catcher
Age: 35 Years Old (Turns 36 in August).
Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
Outlook: I'll start off by quoting myself from last year's outlook: "I am still willing to give Jorge the benefit of the doubt that he hasn't completely fallen off..." Still, it was a little hard to project that a 34 Year old catcher would rebound from a 3 year consistent decline but did Jorge ever do it. He played 143 games (second most in his career) and put up the third highest SLG in his career. The man didn't wear down either, putting up his best numbers in September (.316/.386/.646/1.032) and after the break. In addition to that, he made several strides as a defensive player (which is surprising considering the man's age) and ended up with a 37.3% caught stealing rate, the best full-year rate of his career (by a large margin at that).
After going through the numbers, one funny thing that I did notice was Posada's lefty/right splits. Over the course of his career, Posada has wailed on all pitchers but has consistently had better averages, OBPs and SLG against lefties. That def. wasn't the case last year as Jorge pounded righties to the tune of .284/.385/.540/.925 and for 20 of his 23 homeruns (.263/.348/.380/.728 against lefties). You know what - I can't really explain that but hey, he faces more righties over the course of the season so I hope that it wasn't a fluke and that he keeps it up.
In any case, even after Posada's resurgence last year, you can't sidestep the fact that the man is a catcher and getting up there in years, so you know that there is a drop off coming. Now, the question really is how big of a drop should we all expect and when are we going to see it. I still believe that 2005 was an outlier - it was exceptionally bad due to injuries and bad luck but the trend is still there (and inevitable) - it's just not as steep as 2005 would have led you to believe.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
Jorge Posada - Catcher
Age: 35 Years Old (Turns 36 in August).
Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.
| SEASON | Team | G | AB | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Yankees | 137 | 449 | 122 | 70 | 31 | 0 | 21 | 72 | 81 | 88 | 92 | 1 | 3 | .272 |
| 2005 | Yankees | 142 | 474 | 124 | 82 | 23 | 0 | 19 | 67 | 71 | 66 | 94 | 1 | 0 | .262 |
| 2006 | Yankees | 143 | 465 | 129 | 77 | 27 | 2 | 23 | 65 | 93 | 64 | 97 | 3 | 0 | .277 |
| 2007 | 143 | 497 | 132 | 80 | 29 | 1 | 22 | 70 | 89 | 78 | 113 | 2 | 1 | .266 | |
| 2007 | 472 | 120 | 75 | 23 | 1 | 21 | 73 | 64 | 59 | 96 | 2 | 1 | .254 | ||
| 2007 | 452 | 121 | 74 | 26 | 1 | 20 | 65 | 77 | 64 | 93 | 3 | 1 | .268 | ||
| 2007 | 417 | 110 | 69 | 22 | 1 | 18 | 59 | 84 | 63 | 93 | 1 | 1 | .264 |
| SEASON | Team | BB% | K% | BB/K | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Yankees | 16.4 % | 20.5 % | 0.96 | .400 | .481 | .881 | .209 | .301 |
| 2005 | Yankees | 12.2 % | 19.8 % | 0.70 | .352 | .430 | .782 | .169 | .291 |
| 2006 | Yankees | 12.1 % | 20.9 % | 0.66 | .374 | .492 | .867 | .215 | .307 |
| 2007 | Bill James | 13.6 % | 22.7 % | 0.69 | .373 | .461 | .834 | .195 | .304 |
| 2007 | CHONE | 11.1 % | 20.3 % | 0.61 | .347 | .441 | .788 | .186 | .279 |
| 2007 | Marcel | 12.4 % | 20.6 % | 0.69 | .364 | .462 | .827 | .195 | .298 |
| 2007 | ZiPS | 13.1 % | 22.3 % | 0.68 | .368 | .451 | .819 | .187 | .301 |
Outlook: I'll start off by quoting myself from last year's outlook: "I am still willing to give Jorge the benefit of the doubt that he hasn't completely fallen off..." Still, it was a little hard to project that a 34 Year old catcher would rebound from a 3 year consistent decline but did Jorge ever do it. He played 143 games (second most in his career) and put up the third highest SLG in his career. The man didn't wear down either, putting up his best numbers in September (.316/.386/.646/1.032) and after the break. In addition to that, he made several strides as a defensive player (which is surprising considering the man's age) and ended up with a 37.3% caught stealing rate, the best full-year rate of his career (by a large margin at that).
After going through the numbers, one funny thing that I did notice was Posada's lefty/right splits. Over the course of his career, Posada has wailed on all pitchers but has consistently had better averages, OBPs and SLG against lefties. That def. wasn't the case last year as Jorge pounded righties to the tune of .284/.385/.540/.925 and for 20 of his 23 homeruns (.263/.348/.380/.728 against lefties). You know what - I can't really explain that but hey, he faces more righties over the course of the season so I hope that it wasn't a fluke and that he keeps it up.
In any case, even after Posada's resurgence last year, you can't sidestep the fact that the man is a catcher and getting up there in years, so you know that there is a drop off coming. Now, the question really is how big of a drop should we all expect and when are we going to see it. I still believe that 2005 was an outlier - it was exceptionally bad due to injuries and bad luck but the trend is still there (and inevitable) - it's just not as steep as 2005 would have led you to believe.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
| AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|
Mike A. wrote:
50
13
59
1
.255
.340
.410
I think Jorge hits the wall this year, but hopefully I'm wrong.