02/15: Point, Counterpoint
Posted by: James
Normally, I let these sort of opinions go but I enjoy Jayson Stark's writing more often than not so I'm trying to get an understanding on his rationale for a point in his latest article, where he lists the Red Sox as the most improved team in the AL.
It's not that I disagree that the Red Sox are an improved team (though I certainly don't think they're the MOST improved), it's that I really don't understand Stark's particular reasoning here for his first two points.
First, I don't see how Julio Lugo is that big of an upgrade at the leadoff spot. Maybe it's because he hasn’t hit particularly well against the Yankees over the past three seasons but I don't see Julio Lugo as a great player. At first, I thought this might be an addition by subtraction type deal (a la Damon taking over for Bubba/Bernie last year) but after checking the stats, he doesn't provide much of a leap above what the Sox had last year. The #1 spot for the Red Sox hit .260/.348/.394/.742 last year. Now, I'm fairly sure Lugo beats that batting average pretty handily but I can't seem him blowing past either the OBP or SLG by a lot (career .277/.340/.402 hitter). If you look further at the stats, Lugo is definitely an upgrade for the Boston team but not as a leadoff hitter but definitely more valuable than what was trotted out at SS last year. That should have been Stark's point and I would have gladly agreed.
Next we have the bullpen issues. Brendan Donnelly, J.C. Romero, Joel Pineiro and Runelvys Hernandez? Really? That's the upgrade? Anyone who thinks that a team's bullpen issues can be fixed with the likes of these guys is a very optimistic person. Donnelly is a decent pitcher but he will be 36 and his ERA (and FIP and OPS allowed) have gone up every year for the last three years. J.C. Romero, Joel Pineiro and Runelvys Hernandez all had ERAs of over 6.30 and WHIPS of over 1.65 last year and you're adding them to a bullpen that has Manny Delcarmen (6.23 ERA after the All-Star Break), Craig Hansen (7.52 ERA after ASB) and Mike Timlin (6.06 ERA after ASB). I fully expect most of these guys to be better than they were in 2006 (realistically, it would be hard to be worse) but to say that these are the guys who will plug up what was a very leaky bullpen last year is really reaching.
A year ago this time, the Red Sox thought they had a real shot to break out of that Yankees-finish-first, Sox-finish-second rut they'd been buried in since 1998. But not that way. They've responded to their third-place hangover by addressing their leadoff issues (Julio Lugo), bullpen troubles (Brendan Donnelly, Hideki Okajima, J.C. Romero, Joel Pineiro, Runelvys Hernandez), outfield questions (J.D. Drew) and International Man of Mystery deficit (Daisuke Matsuzaka). If they find a closer and everything else works, this could be the most dangerous team in baseball. Team you'll be shocked to hear got some votes: Royals.
It's not that I disagree that the Red Sox are an improved team (though I certainly don't think they're the MOST improved), it's that I really don't understand Stark's particular reasoning here for his first two points.
First, I don't see how Julio Lugo is that big of an upgrade at the leadoff spot. Maybe it's because he hasn’t hit particularly well against the Yankees over the past three seasons but I don't see Julio Lugo as a great player. At first, I thought this might be an addition by subtraction type deal (a la Damon taking over for Bubba/Bernie last year) but after checking the stats, he doesn't provide much of a leap above what the Sox had last year. The #1 spot for the Red Sox hit .260/.348/.394/.742 last year. Now, I'm fairly sure Lugo beats that batting average pretty handily but I can't seem him blowing past either the OBP or SLG by a lot (career .277/.340/.402 hitter). If you look further at the stats, Lugo is definitely an upgrade for the Boston team but not as a leadoff hitter but definitely more valuable than what was trotted out at SS last year. That should have been Stark's point and I would have gladly agreed.
Next we have the bullpen issues. Brendan Donnelly, J.C. Romero, Joel Pineiro and Runelvys Hernandez? Really? That's the upgrade? Anyone who thinks that a team's bullpen issues can be fixed with the likes of these guys is a very optimistic person. Donnelly is a decent pitcher but he will be 36 and his ERA (and FIP and OPS allowed) have gone up every year for the last three years. J.C. Romero, Joel Pineiro and Runelvys Hernandez all had ERAs of over 6.30 and WHIPS of over 1.65 last year and you're adding them to a bullpen that has Manny Delcarmen (6.23 ERA after the All-Star Break), Craig Hansen (7.52 ERA after ASB) and Mike Timlin (6.06 ERA after ASB). I fully expect most of these guys to be better than they were in 2006 (realistically, it would be hard to be worse) but to say that these are the guys who will plug up what was a very leaky bullpen last year is really reaching.
Seamus wrote: