10/06: Mo for Cy Young
Posted by: Patrick
The other day, I wrote about Mariano and A-Rod's chances at the AL MVP. Today, we'll focus on Mo and the AL Cy Young.
In the AL Cy Young, you have 3 real good candidates. It really depends on what you like. If you don't have a thing against relievers, you have Mariano. If you like wins, there is Bartolo Colon who went 21-8 with a 3.48 ERA (leading the AL in wins by 3). If you like ERA, WHIP, BAA (and you want a starter), you have Johan Santana, who was 16-7 with a 2.87 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .210 BAA. Let's run through the basic stats.
Mariano Rivera
71 G, 7-4, 43 S, 78 1/3 IP, 18 BB, 80 K, 1.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, .177 BAA.
Bartolo Colon
33 G, 21-8, 0 SV, 222 2/3 IP, 43 BB, 157 K, 3.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .254 BAA.
Johan Santana
33 G, 16-7, 0 SV, 231 2/3 IP, 45 BB, 238 K, 2.87 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, .210 BAA.
A starting pitcher with 16 or less wins has taken home a Cy Young exactly 5 times in both leagues - 4 times in the NL and once in the AL. The last time was in 1994 with both Greg Maddux and David Cone taking home Cy Youngs as 16 game winners and that was a strike year where only 114 games were played. Before that, the last time was Rick Sutcliffe in 1984. He went 16-1. Does getting into the playoffs help your chances of winning the Cy? If it does, then that's another strike against Santana. All of this leads me to believe that Colon will finish ahead of Santana, despite the fact that Santana pitched in as many games, has 1 less loss, pitched 9 more innings and had dramatically better numbers in the ERA, WHIP and BAA departments.
A reliever winning the Cy Young has happened 8 different times. 4 in the AL and 4 in the NL. Last was in 2003 when Eric Gagne got the award. Their stats (with Mariano's on top, numbers in paranthesis are per inning pitched):
71 G, 67 GF, 7-4, 43 S, 78 1/3 IP, 18 BB (0.22), 80 (1.02), 1,38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP
77 G, 67 GF, 2-3, 55 S, 82 1/3 IP, 22 BB (0.26), 137 K (1.66), 1.20 ERA, 0.69 WHIP
70 G, 65 GF, 4-3, 44 S, 92 2/3 IP, 31 BB (0.33), 92 K (0.99), 1.85 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
65 G, 56 GF, 5-3, 40 S, 89 IP, 28 BB (0.31), 74 K (0.83), 2.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
62 G, 56 GF, 6-6, 37 S, 101 1/3 IP, 32 BB (0.31), 110 K (1.08), 2.22 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
69 G, 65 GF, 7-1, 51 S, 80 IP, 11 BB (0.13), 93 K (1.16), 1.91 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
80 G, 68 GF, 9-3, 32 S, 140 1/3 IP, 36 BB (0.34), 112 K (0.79), 1.92 ERA, 0.94 WHIP
47 G, 41 GF, 6-3, 28 S, 78 IP, 13 BB (0.16), 61 K (0.78), 1.04 ERA, 0.87 WHIP
72 G, 60 GF, 13-5, 26 S, 137 IP, 33 BB (0.24), 68 K (0.49), 2.17 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
The Yankees were 53-28 at home and they were 42-39 on the road. Mariano pitched 34 of his 71 games on the road. In those 34 games, he was 0-0 with 26 saves and a 0.26 ERA, a 0.54 WHIP and a .121 BAA. He blew 1 save on the road. They were 32-2 when he pitched on the road. Mariano came into your house when it was harder for the Yankees to win and he got it done. He pitched in 32 games that the Yankees won by 2 or less runs.
I read this in an article (and I can look it up if need be), but Mariano (as in ALDS Game 1 where he was brought in to face the 3, 4, 5 hitters), and closers in general for that matter I would guess, are brought in to face a higher concentration of better hitters than starters. His ERA versus teams in his division was 1.58. He threw 34 innings over 34 games, going 4-2 with 20 saves. His ERA against teams over .500 was 1.60. Against those teams, he pitched 33 2/3 innings over 29 games going 3-3 with 18 saves. Mariano's been doing this for 10 years. People know him, people know what he does, people have seen him. Yet, he had arguably his best season. Bartolo Colon had a great year. But, if we're talking best pitcher, we're talking the pitcher that people feared facing the most, the pitcher they had the least opportunity of succeeding against. I believe that was Mariano Rivera.
In the AL Cy Young, you have 3 real good candidates. It really depends on what you like. If you don't have a thing against relievers, you have Mariano. If you like wins, there is Bartolo Colon who went 21-8 with a 3.48 ERA (leading the AL in wins by 3). If you like ERA, WHIP, BAA (and you want a starter), you have Johan Santana, who was 16-7 with a 2.87 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .210 BAA. Let's run through the basic stats.
Mariano Rivera
71 G, 7-4, 43 S, 78 1/3 IP, 18 BB, 80 K, 1.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, .177 BAA.
Bartolo Colon
33 G, 21-8, 0 SV, 222 2/3 IP, 43 BB, 157 K, 3.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .254 BAA.
Johan Santana
33 G, 16-7, 0 SV, 231 2/3 IP, 45 BB, 238 K, 2.87 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, .210 BAA.
A starting pitcher with 16 or less wins has taken home a Cy Young exactly 5 times in both leagues - 4 times in the NL and once in the AL. The last time was in 1994 with both Greg Maddux and David Cone taking home Cy Youngs as 16 game winners and that was a strike year where only 114 games were played. Before that, the last time was Rick Sutcliffe in 1984. He went 16-1. Does getting into the playoffs help your chances of winning the Cy? If it does, then that's another strike against Santana. All of this leads me to believe that Colon will finish ahead of Santana, despite the fact that Santana pitched in as many games, has 1 less loss, pitched 9 more innings and had dramatically better numbers in the ERA, WHIP and BAA departments.
A reliever winning the Cy Young has happened 8 different times. 4 in the AL and 4 in the NL. Last was in 2003 when Eric Gagne got the award. Their stats (with Mariano's on top, numbers in paranthesis are per inning pitched):
71 G, 67 GF, 7-4, 43 S, 78 1/3 IP, 18 BB (0.22), 80 (1.02), 1,38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP
77 G, 67 GF, 2-3, 55 S, 82 1/3 IP, 22 BB (0.26), 137 K (1.66), 1.20 ERA, 0.69 WHIP
70 G, 65 GF, 4-3, 44 S, 92 2/3 IP, 31 BB (0.33), 92 K (0.99), 1.85 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
65 G, 56 GF, 5-3, 40 S, 89 IP, 28 BB (0.31), 74 K (0.83), 2.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
62 G, 56 GF, 6-6, 37 S, 101 1/3 IP, 32 BB (0.31), 110 K (1.08), 2.22 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
69 G, 65 GF, 7-1, 51 S, 80 IP, 11 BB (0.13), 93 K (1.16), 1.91 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
80 G, 68 GF, 9-3, 32 S, 140 1/3 IP, 36 BB (0.34), 112 K (0.79), 1.92 ERA, 0.94 WHIP
47 G, 41 GF, 6-3, 28 S, 78 IP, 13 BB (0.16), 61 K (0.78), 1.04 ERA, 0.87 WHIP
72 G, 60 GF, 13-5, 26 S, 137 IP, 33 BB (0.24), 68 K (0.49), 2.17 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
The Yankees were 53-28 at home and they were 42-39 on the road. Mariano pitched 34 of his 71 games on the road. In those 34 games, he was 0-0 with 26 saves and a 0.26 ERA, a 0.54 WHIP and a .121 BAA. He blew 1 save on the road. They were 32-2 when he pitched on the road. Mariano came into your house when it was harder for the Yankees to win and he got it done. He pitched in 32 games that the Yankees won by 2 or less runs.
I read this in an article (and I can look it up if need be), but Mariano (as in ALDS Game 1 where he was brought in to face the 3, 4, 5 hitters), and closers in general for that matter I would guess, are brought in to face a higher concentration of better hitters than starters. His ERA versus teams in his division was 1.58. He threw 34 innings over 34 games, going 4-2 with 20 saves. His ERA against teams over .500 was 1.60. Against those teams, he pitched 33 2/3 innings over 29 games going 3-3 with 18 saves. Mariano's been doing this for 10 years. People know him, people know what he does, people have seen him. Yet, he had arguably his best season. Bartolo Colon had a great year. But, if we're talking best pitcher, we're talking the pitcher that people feared facing the most, the pitcher they had the least opportunity of succeeding against. I believe that was Mariano Rivera.
