10/04: ALDS Preview: Yankees vs. Indians
Posted by: Seamus
The Yankees will be in Jacobs Field in Cleveland tonight for Game 1 of their Division Series against the Indians. They will be making their 13th straight postseason appearance, and are actually the only of the eight postseason teams this year that was also there last October. The Indians will be making their first playoff appearance since 2001, when they nearly pulled off a historic upset of the Mariners, who won 116 games, but were sent packing after losing both Games 4 and 5. The Yankees and Indians have met twice in the postseason before, most recently in the 1998 ALCS which the Yankees won in 6 games. They also played each other in the ALDS in 1997, with Cleveland emerging as the victor in five games.
Here's a telling stat about the Yankees' season for you: On July 1, the Yankees were 9 games behind Detroit in the wild card standings, and then rallied back to take the wild card by seven games. That means that had the Yankees been 16 games out almost halfway through the season, they STILL would have been good enough the rest of the way to get in the postseason. This season was quite a roller-coaster ride for the Yanks, probably the most tumultous of the Joe Torre era, as the Yankees went 73-39 (.651) after a 21-29 start, basically emerging from their coffins and rallying back for their first wild card berth since 1997.
The Indians were more-or-less in it from Day 1, getting help from an MVP-caliber start to the season by Grady Sizemore, a career season for C.C. Sabathia, and a breakout year for sophomore hurler Fausto Carmona. The Indians battled back and forth with the Tigers for the A.L. Central throughout most of the season before pulling ahead for good by mid-August.
Here's a look at some of the matchups...
SP: The Yankees will be going with a starting rotation of Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettite, Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina, in that order. Cleveland is going with a rotation of C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd. The Yankees are the only one of the four A.L. playoff teams not in the top 3 in starters' E.R.A. (Yanks are 8th). The Indians are 1st in both E.R.A. (4.19) and innings pitched (Yanks are 11th in IP). The Yankees do have two very capable stoppers in Wang and Pettite, but Roger Clemens' health is in question and Mike Mussina has been inconsistent all year as people are beginning to wonder whether the 38-year old has much in the tank. C.C. Sabathia is coming off a Cy-Young caliber year and Carmona's numbers are comparable to his (3.06 E.R.A., WHIP of 1.21). Paul Byrd put up decent numbers, but his E.R.A. increased every month of the season (June-July being the exception because of the 6.91 he put up in June). Westbrook was better than his 6-9 record indicates, but is generally a six-inning guy.
Edge: Indians
IF: From a strictly offensive standpoint, the Yankees' infield is by far the best in the game and probably up there with the best in baseball history. The Yankees have a .300 hitter at every position to the left of first base. Jorge Posada is having his best season at the age of 36 with an average of .338 and and OPS of .969 (did I forget to mention this guy is a catcher?) The Yankees also have baseball's greatest postseason performer in Derek Jeter and this other guy (forgot his name) who lead the league in home runs, runs scored, RBI, slugging and OPS and also finished 4th in the A.L. in OBP and 7th in stolen bases. Some "Rodriguez" or something like that. The Yankees also have the option of going with defense at first base with Doug Mientkiewicz (who has also seen an offensive revival in September) or offense with Shelley Duncan or Jason Giambi.
The Indians are in the bottom half of the A.L. at every position in fielding percentage aside from shortstop. Not that the Yankees sport the league's finest defensive infield either, but herein lies the problem: The Indians' infielders do not make up for it offensively, at least not the same way the Yankees do. Casey Blake's numbers are okay (.270/18/78/.339/.437). Travis Hafner is used primarily as the DH and has had a subpar season by his standards. Ryan Garko's numbers are not bad, but not good enough for a first baseman, especially one who had the 10th best fielding percentage in the American League. Asdrubal Cabrera is quite an improvement over Josh Barfield, who began the season as the Indians' starting 2B, and Jhonny Peralta's numbers are respectable for a SS, but they don't come close to comparing with Cano and Jeter.
Edge: Yankees
OF: I guess you could say that the Yankees' outfield isn't quite as potent offensively as last year's was. No more Sheffield. Johnny Damon is hurt/aging, Melky Cabrera is a streaky player who is in the midst of an ice cold streak and Hideki Matsui is struggling after a scorching hot July and August. That being said, there still isn't really anybody who can quite match them. None of them really have eye-popping numbers, but if you consider how Abreu, Matsui and Cabrera started off and factor in that Johnny Damon has hit better the last month or so, you'd still see four pretty formidable hitters.
Okay, upon further review, when I said "MVP caliber start" for Grady Sizemore, I was talking about the first two weeks or so (he actually finished with a .253 AVG in April). He helped the team jump-start their season, but was pretty mediocre after that. He finished the season with slightly above-average numbers (24 HR, 78 RBI, OPS of .852). The other two starting outfielders, Kenny Lofton and Trot Nixon, should be labeled "experienced" pretty much the same way you label your grandfather when he tells you WWII stories.
Edge: Yankees
Bench: It's hard to figure what to label the Yankees' "bench," as guys like Jason Giambi, Shelley Duncan, Johnny Damon will be mixed into the starting lineup at some time or other, probably more frequently than not. Either way, the Yankees will be equipped with four very capable bats on the bench. Even Jose Molina is over .300 as a Yankee this season. Only weak link on this bench is Bronson Sardinha.
The Indians have a capable backup catcher in Kelly Shoppach, but considering the player he's backing up, he probably won't see much time anyway. Josh Barfield was replaced at second base by Asdrubal Cabrera in August for a reason, which is because he shouldn't be on the field (OPS of .594). Other than that, nobody with an OBP of over .325.
Edge: Yankees
RP: Despite a season that doesn't quite compare with some of his previous seasons (mainly because of a rough April), Mariano Rivera is still the best there is at what he does and is still the best postseason pitcher of all-time (0.80 E.R.A. in 73 appearances). The Yankees have finally found an adequate setup guy for him in Joba Chamberlain, who's allowed just one earned run in 24 innings of work. The big question concerning the Yankees' bullpen is what comes in between the starter and Chamberlain. Everybody in Joe Torre's bullpen has shown signs they can do the job, but are inconsistent. Luis Vizcaino turned his season around after a rough start, but has been complaining lately of a tired arm. Jose Veras posted a BAA of just .176, but an E.R.A. of 5.79, meaning he has major control issues. Kyle Farnsworth, for whatever reason, has to give up his customary solo home run in every outing. Russ Ohlendorf has been a Major League pitcher for two weeks. If the Yankees' starters can give them 7 innings every night, they'd be lights out. But the back end of that rotation consists of some aging arms and you never know what you are going to get out of your starting pitcher night in and night out.
When you first look at Cleveland's bullpen, you probably see Joe Borowski and his 5.07 E.R.A. and think, "How can a bullpen like that get a team into the postseason?" Well, not so fast. Yeah, he's their closer, but he is probably the worst pitcher the Yankees will face in this series. Rafael Betancourt is the ace of that bullpen, sporting an E.R.A. of 1.47 and a miniscule WHIP of 0.76 in 68 appearances. Rafael Perez is another unknown beast with an E.R.A. of 1.78 and a WHIP of 0.92 in 44 appearances this season. Jensen Lewis and Aaron Fultz also put up great numbers for the Indians this year. It's the utilization of this bullpen that may very well hurt the Indians in the end. Eric Wedge allowed a guy with a 5.07 E.R.A. to save 45 games for them. So for everyone out there (myself included at times) who likes to complain about Joe Torre's usage of his bullpen, just be glad that he isn't using Kyle Farnsworth as his closer.
Edge: Indians
There are a few intangibles out there that should just be thrown out to you and then quickly thrown right out the window:
It pretty much goes like this... if the Yankees starters can each give Joe Torre six or seven solid innings and get to Joba and Mo without any hiccups, the Indians have no shot. If the Indians can rough up the starters a bit and the Yankees' have to bridge the gap with guys like Farnsworth, then it's a whole different story. I'm going to pick the Yankees to win this series, though, because although I believe the Indians have a slight starting pitching edge in every game, it is a slight edge in most cases and I think that the Yankees' lineup should handle Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd better than the Indians' can handle Clemens and Mussina, because the Yanks' lineup is just that good.
My Prediction: Yankees in 4
Of course last year the Yankees were the hottest team going into October and were facing a Tigers team that blew a 10 game lead in their division to end up with a wild card berth so I natuarlly assumed a Yankees' sweep was pretty much predestined. Sure enough, though, the Yankees bats went cold and the Bombers were ousted in four games, so only time will tell. Series begins tonight at 6:30 P.M. E.T.
Here's a telling stat about the Yankees' season for you: On July 1, the Yankees were 9 games behind Detroit in the wild card standings, and then rallied back to take the wild card by seven games. That means that had the Yankees been 16 games out almost halfway through the season, they STILL would have been good enough the rest of the way to get in the postseason. This season was quite a roller-coaster ride for the Yanks, probably the most tumultous of the Joe Torre era, as the Yankees went 73-39 (.651) after a 21-29 start, basically emerging from their coffins and rallying back for their first wild card berth since 1997.
The Indians were more-or-less in it from Day 1, getting help from an MVP-caliber start to the season by Grady Sizemore, a career season for C.C. Sabathia, and a breakout year for sophomore hurler Fausto Carmona. The Indians battled back and forth with the Tigers for the A.L. Central throughout most of the season before pulling ahead for good by mid-August.
Here's a look at some of the matchups...
SP: The Yankees will be going with a starting rotation of Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettite, Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina, in that order. Cleveland is going with a rotation of C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd. The Yankees are the only one of the four A.L. playoff teams not in the top 3 in starters' E.R.A. (Yanks are 8th). The Indians are 1st in both E.R.A. (4.19) and innings pitched (Yanks are 11th in IP). The Yankees do have two very capable stoppers in Wang and Pettite, but Roger Clemens' health is in question and Mike Mussina has been inconsistent all year as people are beginning to wonder whether the 38-year old has much in the tank. C.C. Sabathia is coming off a Cy-Young caliber year and Carmona's numbers are comparable to his (3.06 E.R.A., WHIP of 1.21). Paul Byrd put up decent numbers, but his E.R.A. increased every month of the season (June-July being the exception because of the 6.91 he put up in June). Westbrook was better than his 6-9 record indicates, but is generally a six-inning guy.
Edge: Indians
IF: From a strictly offensive standpoint, the Yankees' infield is by far the best in the game and probably up there with the best in baseball history. The Yankees have a .300 hitter at every position to the left of first base. Jorge Posada is having his best season at the age of 36 with an average of .338 and and OPS of .969 (did I forget to mention this guy is a catcher?) The Yankees also have baseball's greatest postseason performer in Derek Jeter and this other guy (forgot his name) who lead the league in home runs, runs scored, RBI, slugging and OPS and also finished 4th in the A.L. in OBP and 7th in stolen bases. Some "Rodriguez" or something like that. The Yankees also have the option of going with defense at first base with Doug Mientkiewicz (who has also seen an offensive revival in September) or offense with Shelley Duncan or Jason Giambi.
The Indians are in the bottom half of the A.L. at every position in fielding percentage aside from shortstop. Not that the Yankees sport the league's finest defensive infield either, but herein lies the problem: The Indians' infielders do not make up for it offensively, at least not the same way the Yankees do. Casey Blake's numbers are okay (.270/18/78/.339/.437). Travis Hafner is used primarily as the DH and has had a subpar season by his standards. Ryan Garko's numbers are not bad, but not good enough for a first baseman, especially one who had the 10th best fielding percentage in the American League. Asdrubal Cabrera is quite an improvement over Josh Barfield, who began the season as the Indians' starting 2B, and Jhonny Peralta's numbers are respectable for a SS, but they don't come close to comparing with Cano and Jeter.
Edge: Yankees
OF: I guess you could say that the Yankees' outfield isn't quite as potent offensively as last year's was. No more Sheffield. Johnny Damon is hurt/aging, Melky Cabrera is a streaky player who is in the midst of an ice cold streak and Hideki Matsui is struggling after a scorching hot July and August. That being said, there still isn't really anybody who can quite match them. None of them really have eye-popping numbers, but if you consider how Abreu, Matsui and Cabrera started off and factor in that Johnny Damon has hit better the last month or so, you'd still see four pretty formidable hitters.
Okay, upon further review, when I said "MVP caliber start" for Grady Sizemore, I was talking about the first two weeks or so (he actually finished with a .253 AVG in April). He helped the team jump-start their season, but was pretty mediocre after that. He finished the season with slightly above-average numbers (24 HR, 78 RBI, OPS of .852). The other two starting outfielders, Kenny Lofton and Trot Nixon, should be labeled "experienced" pretty much the same way you label your grandfather when he tells you WWII stories.
Edge: Yankees
Bench: It's hard to figure what to label the Yankees' "bench," as guys like Jason Giambi, Shelley Duncan, Johnny Damon will be mixed into the starting lineup at some time or other, probably more frequently than not. Either way, the Yankees will be equipped with four very capable bats on the bench. Even Jose Molina is over .300 as a Yankee this season. Only weak link on this bench is Bronson Sardinha.
The Indians have a capable backup catcher in Kelly Shoppach, but considering the player he's backing up, he probably won't see much time anyway. Josh Barfield was replaced at second base by Asdrubal Cabrera in August for a reason, which is because he shouldn't be on the field (OPS of .594). Other than that, nobody with an OBP of over .325.
Edge: Yankees
RP: Despite a season that doesn't quite compare with some of his previous seasons (mainly because of a rough April), Mariano Rivera is still the best there is at what he does and is still the best postseason pitcher of all-time (0.80 E.R.A. in 73 appearances). The Yankees have finally found an adequate setup guy for him in Joba Chamberlain, who's allowed just one earned run in 24 innings of work. The big question concerning the Yankees' bullpen is what comes in between the starter and Chamberlain. Everybody in Joe Torre's bullpen has shown signs they can do the job, but are inconsistent. Luis Vizcaino turned his season around after a rough start, but has been complaining lately of a tired arm. Jose Veras posted a BAA of just .176, but an E.R.A. of 5.79, meaning he has major control issues. Kyle Farnsworth, for whatever reason, has to give up his customary solo home run in every outing. Russ Ohlendorf has been a Major League pitcher for two weeks. If the Yankees' starters can give them 7 innings every night, they'd be lights out. But the back end of that rotation consists of some aging arms and you never know what you are going to get out of your starting pitcher night in and night out.
When you first look at Cleveland's bullpen, you probably see Joe Borowski and his 5.07 E.R.A. and think, "How can a bullpen like that get a team into the postseason?" Well, not so fast. Yeah, he's their closer, but he is probably the worst pitcher the Yankees will face in this series. Rafael Betancourt is the ace of that bullpen, sporting an E.R.A. of 1.47 and a miniscule WHIP of 0.76 in 68 appearances. Rafael Perez is another unknown beast with an E.R.A. of 1.78 and a WHIP of 0.92 in 44 appearances this season. Jensen Lewis and Aaron Fultz also put up great numbers for the Indians this year. It's the utilization of this bullpen that may very well hurt the Indians in the end. Eric Wedge allowed a guy with a 5.07 E.R.A. to save 45 games for them. So for everyone out there (myself included at times) who likes to complain about Joe Torre's usage of his bullpen, just be glad that he isn't using Kyle Farnsworth as his closer.
Edge: Indians
There are a few intangibles out there that should just be thrown out to you and then quickly thrown right out the window:
- The Yankees' 6-0 record vs. Cleveland this year - the Yankees' regular season dominance over Detroit last year did not help them in October.
- C.C. Sabathia's 1-7 career record vs. the Yanks - he hasn't pitched against them in four years.
- Yankees' postseason experience over Indians' non-experience - four of the last six World Champions ('01 D'Backs, '02 Angels, '03 Marlins and '05 White Sox) were made up mostly of players who generally lacked much previous playing time in October.
- The last time the Yankees were in as the wild card team was in 1997, when they lost to the Indians in the ALDS in five games. Indians fans will be cute and bring this up in conversations I'm sure, but that obviously has no bearing on the outcome of this series.
It pretty much goes like this... if the Yankees starters can each give Joe Torre six or seven solid innings and get to Joba and Mo without any hiccups, the Indians have no shot. If the Indians can rough up the starters a bit and the Yankees' have to bridge the gap with guys like Farnsworth, then it's a whole different story. I'm going to pick the Yankees to win this series, though, because although I believe the Indians have a slight starting pitching edge in every game, it is a slight edge in most cases and I think that the Yankees' lineup should handle Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd better than the Indians' can handle Clemens and Mussina, because the Yanks' lineup is just that good.
My Prediction: Yankees in 4
Of course last year the Yankees were the hottest team going into October and were facing a Tigers team that blew a 10 game lead in their division to end up with a wild card berth so I natuarlly assumed a Yankees' sweep was pretty much predestined. Sure enough, though, the Yankees bats went cold and the Bombers were ousted in four games, so only time will tell. Series begins tonight at 6:30 P.M. E.T.
Patrick wrote: