Carl Pavano
Age: 31 Years Old (Turns 32 in January).

Three-Year History and three-year splits.

SEASON Team W L ERA G GS CG IP H R ER HR BB SO
2004 Marlins 18 8 3.00 31 31 2 222.1 212 80 74 16 49 139
2005 Yankees 4 6 4.77 17 17 1 100.0 129 66 53 17 18 56
2006 Yankees (A+) 0 2 2.31 3 3 0 11.2 10 6 3 2 3 10
2006 Yankees (AA) 1 0 1.64 3 3 0 11.0 6 2 2 0 0 12
2006 Yankees (AAA) 1 0 3.00 1 1 0 6.0 8 2 2 0 1 5
2007 Bill James 5 4 4.15 14 14   78.0 84     8 20 50
2007 CHONE     4.40       90.0 99 48 44 13 22 53
2007 Marcel 4 4 4.50       70.0 79 38 35 9 18 45
2007 ZiPS 8 7 4.64 20 20   128.0 150 73 66 16 30 66

SEASON Team K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP
2004 Marlins 5.63 1.98 2.84 0.65 .253 1.17 .287 76.9 % 3.69
2005 Yankees 5.04 1.62 3.11 1.53 .314 1.47 .331 67.8 % 5.07
2006 Yankees (A+) 7.71 2.31 3.33 1.54 .233 1.11 .259 71.4 % 4.74
2006 Yankees (AA) 9.82 0.00 12.00 0.00 .162 0.55 .240 71.4 % 1.29
2006 Yankees (AAA) 7.50 1.50 5.00 0.00 .321 1.50 .402 77.8 % 2.03
2007 Bill James 5.77 2.31 2.50 0.92 .276 1.33 .309   4.17
2007 CHONE 5.30 2.20 2.41 1.30 .281 1.34 .300 72.1 % 4.77
2007 Marcel 5.79 2.31 2.50 1.16 .286 1.39 .315 71.3 % 4.53
2007 ZiPS 4.64 2.11 2.20 1.13 .294 1.41 .312 67.9 % 4.50

Outlook: "Glass Carl" took his game to another level last year. Pavano broke down after a few good starts in 2005 and Yanks fans haven't seen him pitch in a MLB game since then. Combine that with the sometimes absurd assortment of injuries and the stories/rumors that he was/is unhappy in NY and I think you can imagine the bad taste in most fan's mouths.

Well, as I said last year...what's done is done. Pavano is still under contract for two more years and it is in everyone's best interest that Pavano pitch...and pitch well. That's the only way this can work out for the Yankees if they want any sort of return on their $40 million dollar investment. Don't forget, this guy can actually be a good pitcher. He's got a good fastball that he can locate anywhere in the strike zone, a good slider and a decent splitter and change-up. There was a reason he was being pursued so hard by teams when he was a free agent, so if he can stay healthy and pitch to his ability (which he has only done once since 1998), maybe the Yankees will actually see the pitcher they signed so long ago.

Still, to do this, Pavano will have to somehow overcome his own bad luck and injury-riddled nature. If he can somehow stay healthy, there are still a lot of questions to be answered. I mean, who knows what kind of arm strength Pavano has built up to this point? When you combine a history of arm trouble with extended time off from from pitching, it doesn't exactly bode well for a full healthy season. On a personal level, he will also have to win back the trust of the fans, and more importantly, the rest of his teammates. What kind of effect this will have on his pitching remains to be seen. In the end, I guess all we know about Pavano is that we just don't know what he can or will contribute to the Yankees this year. Your guess is as good as mine.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G GS Innings W L BB K ERA