11/09: YanksBlog.com Community Projections 2007 in Review: The Hitters
Posted by: Patrick
Earlier this year, we asked you to post your projections for the players that would comprise your 2007 Yankees. Now, it's time to take a look back at those projections and see how they measured up with what actually happened. Thanks to James for his work on this project, which was very substantial and thank you to everyone who posted projections.
Jorge Posada
Individual Matches: Me and Richard A. Holland for stolen bases.
Doug Mientkiewicz
Individual Matches: Brian for stolen bases.
Robinson Cano
Individual Matches: Seamus for stolen bases.
Derek Jeter
Individual Matches: Mike A. for stolen bases. Brian for batting average.
Alex Rodriguez
Individual Matches: None.
Hideki Matsui
Individual Matches: Me for runs. Me for home runs.
Johnny Damon
Individual Matches: None.
Bobby Abreu
Individual Matches: None.
Jason Giambi
Individual Matches: Me and Richard A. Holland for stolen bases.
Melky Cabrera
Individual Matches: None.
Jorge Posada
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSWe had Jorge pegged for a pretty good year, but he went and put up a R, HR, RBI and AVG line that only two other catchers in the history of the game have matched. Though we got close on homers, he exceeded our expectations in all 9 categories.
Projected: 446 64 19 76 1 .265 .363 .456 .819
Actual: 506 91 20 90 2 .338 .426 .543 .969
Individual Matches: Me and Richard A. Holland for stolen bases.
Doug Mientkiewicz
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSOur projections would probably have been pretty close if not for the injuries that Dougie sustained in a collision down the first base line with Mike Lowell. Still, if you look just at the AVG, OBA, SLG and OPS numbers, we did pretty good.
Projected: 379 47 9 48 2 .273 .355 .403 .757
Actual: 166 26 5 24 0 .277 .349 .440 .789
Individual Matches: Brian for stolen bases.
Robinson Cano
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSWe nailed Robbie. He continued to establish himself as one of the game's premier offensive second basemen with another good year at the dish.
Projected: 585 83 20 87 6 .307 .364 .496 .860
Actual: 617 93 19 97 4 .306 .353 .488 .841
Individual Matches: Seamus for stolen bases.
Derek Jeter
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSThis projection turned out pretty solid, though Jeter did perform below our projections (which, to be honest, were not lenient) in every category except batting average and at bats.
Projected: 627 119 17 90 23 .317 .407 .469 .876
Actual: 639 102 12 73 15 .322 .388 .452 .840
Individual Matches: Mike A. for stolen bases. Brian for batting average.
Alex Rodriguez
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSAn MVP year was what was projected and an MVP year was what was delivered - and then some as A-Rod beat our projections in every category except for at bats which, of course, doesn't mean much.
Projected: 603 113 45 131 18 .310 .394 .595 .989
Actual: 583 143 54 156 24 .314 .422 .645 1.067
Individual Matches: None.
Hideki Matsui
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSThough Matsui dealt with injuries throughout the season, our projection was remarkably close across the board, including RBIs, which we matched and home runs, where we were only one off.
Projected: 576 94 24 103 2 .305 .381 .506 .887
Actual: 547 100 25 103 4 .285 .367 .488 .855
Individual Matches: Me for runs. Me for home runs.
Johnny Damon
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSLike Matsui, Damon dealt with injuries that cost him time. Even so, he stole more bases than we thought he would and still managed to get close in OBA.
Projected: 592 114 21 80 23 .293 .360 .456 .816
Actual: 533 93 12 63 27 .270 .351 .396 .747
Individual Matches: None.
Bobby Abreu
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSWe were expecting a continuation of his post trade deadline performance of 2006 - that's not what we got. But, after a horrible slump, Bobby battled back to log an overall good season across the board.
Projected: 557 104 20 110 28 .305 .418 .479 .897
Actual: 605 123 16 101 25 .283 .369 .445 .814
Individual Matches: None.
Jason Giambi
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSWe thought that the Giambino would be a monstrous offensive force. He couldn't even stay on the field and when he did get out there, he performed poorly. Thanks to that, he vastly undershot our numbers.
Projected: 464 91 39 121 1 .272 .415 .545 .960
Actual: 254 31 14 39 1 .236 .356 .433 .789
Individual Matches: Me and Richard A. Holland for stolen bases.
Melky Cabrera
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLG OPSWe didn't project that Melky would receive the playing time that he did. But, even though he played much more than we thought, he still he hit less home runs and stole less bases than we thought he would, while only exceeding runs and RBIs by relatively small amounts.
Projected: 344 58 13 65 17 .293 .373 .410 .784
Actual: 545 66 8 73 13 .273 .327 .391 .718
Individual Matches: None.