11/13: YanksBlog.com Community Projections 2007 in Review: The Pitchers
Posted by: Patrick
Following up on the hitters projections, here are the pitchers. Really, we should just call these the Patrick and Richard A. Holland projections since we were the only two to post projections on all pitchers but one (Wang). So, with that in mind, here we go:
Chien-Ming Wang
Individual Matches: Richard A. Holland for games. Richard A. Holland for games started.
Mike Mussina
Individual Matches: None.
Andy Pettitte
Individual Matches: Me and Richard A. Holland for losses.
Carl Pavano
Individual Matches: None.
Kei Igawa
Individual Matches: None.
Kyle Farnsworth
Individual Matches: Richard A. Holland for innings.
Scott Proctor
Individual Matches: Me for wins.
Luis Vizcaino
Individual Matches: None.
Brian Bruney
Individual Matches: Me for wins. Richard A. Holland and me for losses.
Mike Myers
Individual Matches: Me for saves.
Mariano Rivera
Chien-Ming Wang
G GS IP W L BB K ERAOur projections reflected high expectations for Wang and he delivered right in line with them. The three start difference can be attributed, in part, to him starting the season injured and out of the rotation.
Projected: 33 33 220.0 18 8 46 87 3.64
Actual: 30 30 199.3 19 7 59 104 3.70
Individual Matches: Richard A. Holland for games. Richard A. Holland for games started.
Mike Mussina
G GS IP W L BB K ERAMoose had his moments, but was poor overall, falling well short of our predictions.
Projected: 31 31 187.7 16 9 46 156 3.97
Actual: 28 27 152.0 11 10 35 91 5.15
Individual Matches: None.
Andy Pettitte
G GS IP W L BB K ERAWe were looking for great things from Andy's return to the Bronx and, for the most part, he delivered. A little below what we were thinking, but close nonetheless.
Projected: 32 32 202.0 17 9 56 158 3.87
Actual: 36 34 215.3 15 9 69 141 4.05
Individual Matches: Me and Richard A. Holland for losses.
Carl Pavano
G GS IP W L BB K ERAOMGLOLWTH!!!111!1! Pavano tricked us again! Suffice to say, we thought he could be healthy most of the year. Eh... we're Yankees fans.
Projected: 29 29 180.7 16 10 47 121 4.14
Actual: 2 2 11.3 1 0 2 4 4.76
Individual Matches: None.
Kei Igawa
G GS IP W L BB K ERAThe Japanese import was a big disappointment in 2007. We had what we thought were modest expectations, but he pitched himself out of the rotation and spent a lot of the season in the minors.
Projected: 32 28 181.8 15 10 61 160 4.32
Actual: 14 12 67.7 2 3 37 53 6.25
Individual Matches: None.
Kyle Farnsworth
G IP W L BB K SV BS ERAKyle was ineffective for most of the season, disappointing us, but matching our walk and blown save projections.
Projected: 72 64.7 4 4 27 80 4 3 3.45
Actual: 64 60.0 2 1 27 48 0 3 4.80
Individual Matches: Richard A. Holland for innings.
Scott Proctor
G IP W L BB K SV BS ERAConsidering the season as a whole, we nailed the losses and were only .01 ERA point away. The rest of the categories weren't so close.
Projected: 84 104.0 8 5 31 82 3 3 3.66
Actual (NYY): 52 54.0 2 5 29 37 0 4 3.81
Actual (Total): 83 86.3 5 5 44 64 0 6 3.65
Individual Matches: Me for wins.
Luis Vizcaino
G IP W L BB K SV BS ERAVizcaino received substantially more playing time than we thought he would, while under performing a bit.
Projected: 69 59.0 6 4 29 67 1 2 3.82
Actual: 77 75.0 8 2 43 62 0 3 4.30
Individual Matches: None.
Brian Bruney
G IP W L BB K SV BS ERAOur hope was that he would pick up where he left off in 2006. Even though he saw more action than projected, his ERA was nearly a full 2 points different. We did match on wins, however.
Projected: 46 40.7 4 2 31 60 3 3 2.76
Actual: 58 50.0 3 2 37 39 0 2 4.68
Individual Matches: Me for wins. Richard A. Holland and me for losses.
Mike Myers
G IP W L BB K SV BS ERAMyers was quite effective for the Yankees - unfortunately, it was against hitters on the wrong side of the plate. In his partial season, he pitched 8 more innings than we thought he'd pitch in the whole season. On Yankees only numbers, we were pretty close. Season numbers - not so much, though we were only 1 off on strikeouts.
Projected: 64 32.7 3 2 14 26 2 1 3.12
Actual (NYY): 55 40.7 3 0 16 21 0 2 2.66
Actual (Total): 72 54.3 4 0 23 27 0 3 4.80
Individual Matches: Me for saves.
Mariano Rivera
G IP W L BB K SV BS ERASaves and ERA not withstanding, these projections are pretty much on. We were looking for similar numbers to what he's put up the last few seasons and while he had a good year, it wasn't at that caliber.
Projected: 71 73.3 5 2 13 65 48 3 1.69
Actual: 67 71.3 3 4 12 74 30 4 3.15