02/21: All Prospects, All The Time
Posted by: James
Mike A. over at RAB points out a little report that Baseball America put up last week ranking each farm system based on how close their prospects are to the majors. Their methodology for this is fairly interesting:
Interesting stuff. For what it's worth, the Yankees come in at #2 (the Dodgers at #1 which is to be expected).
Also, looking back over my posts, I don't know if I ever linked over to Mike A.'s Preseason Top 30. If I haven't, and you haven't checked it out, do so. I'd recommend starting out with the near-misses (where he explains his methodology as well) and then moving on to the main course. I'm always impressed with Mike's work and between him, Fabian over at RLYW and the team over at Pending Pinstripes (not to mention PinstripesPlus and the various forums around the web), Yankees prospect fans have an embarrassment of riches in terms of analysis.
All that playing time doesn’t necessarily make the player more valuable; rather, it increases the certainty with which we can evaluate a player and forecast his future. That doesn’t mean Triple-A Red Sox outfielder Brandon Moss is a better prospect than low Class A Blue Jays outfielder Travis Snider because Moss is closer to the majors—it means there is more certainty to which we can predict the value that Moss will provide to a major league team.
And the closer a player is to the majors, the less there is that can go wrong in his career, be it injuries, on-field problems or issues away from the field. All that said, the idea of anything being “certain” in baseball is somewhat misleading; we’re talking in terms of degrees of confidence.
And the closer a player is to the majors, the less there is that can go wrong in his career, be it injuries, on-field problems or issues away from the field. All that said, the idea of anything being “certain” in baseball is somewhat misleading; we’re talking in terms of degrees of confidence.
Interesting stuff. For what it's worth, the Yankees come in at #2 (the Dodgers at #1 which is to be expected).
Also, looking back over my posts, I don't know if I ever linked over to Mike A.'s Preseason Top 30. If I haven't, and you haven't checked it out, do so. I'd recommend starting out with the near-misses (where he explains his methodology as well) and then moving on to the main course. I'm always impressed with Mike's work and between him, Fabian over at RLYW and the team over at Pending Pinstripes (not to mention PinstripesPlus and the various forums around the web), Yankees prospect fans have an embarrassment of riches in terms of analysis.