03/02: YB Community Projection: Derek Jeter
Posted by: James
Derek Jeter - Shortstop
Age: 31 Years Old (Turns 32 in June).
Three Year History and splits:
Outlook: First off, it amazes me that it's been 10 years since Jeter's Rookie-of-the-Year campaign. 1930 hits later (yes, that's right - barring injury, Derek will be getting hit #2000 early on in the season), the man will be turning 32 during the season. Wow.
Last year, The Captain kept up the pace that he had set in 2004 after that horrific slump. As a leadoff man, he did exactly what was asked of him, which was to get on base (6th in the AL) and score runs (2nd in the AL). The RBI numbers are somewhat artificially low as the Yanks #9 hitters were awful all year long (.247 AVG/.292 OBP) but Jeter didn’t exactly help himself with his batting with runners in scoring position. Still, Derek was very even throughout the year and his splits before and after the all-star break are practically identical. However, the same can’t be said of his home and away splits. It looks like Derek has figured out how to use Yankee Stadium to the best of his abilities because he hit an amazing .354 at home and only .265 away from the Bronx. Honestly, I can’t really explain such an extreme split but it will be interesting to watch if this trend continues.
This year, Jeter will have have much better production in front and still have that fearsome protection behind him so he should get some good opportunities to drive in more runs while getting some good pitches to hit. Let's just hope he doesn't get sac-bunt happy like in 2004. Of course, and we'll see this becoming a recurring theme - he's another year older and on the wrong side of 30. I don't expect his numbers to fall off but we have to remember who we're talking about here. While Jeter has been remarkably durable for most of his career, because of the way he plays, he goes through most seasons with a good amount of injuries. That being said, Derek Jeter is "Derek Jeter". Year in, year out, he's put up numbers most other shortstops would give their fielding arm for and until he shows that he can't do it anymore, I can't find any reason to bet against him doing it again. SG, who did an analysis on Jeter recently, recapped the player in a single phrase: "He's so consistent he's almost boring". (Man, SG's getting pretty good at these one-liners).
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
Age: 31 Years Old (Turns 32 in June).
Three Year History and splits:
| SEASON | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 119 | 482 | 87 | 156 | 25 | 3 | 10 | 52 | 43 | 88 | 11 | 5 | .324 | .393 | .450 | .843 |
| 2004 | 154 | 643 | 111 | 188 | 44 | 1 | 23 | 78 | 46 | 99 | 23 | 4 | .292 | .352 | .471 | .823 |
| 2005 | 159 | 654 | 122 | 202 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 70 | 77 | 117 | 14 | 5 | .309 | .389 | .450 | .839 |
Outlook: First off, it amazes me that it's been 10 years since Jeter's Rookie-of-the-Year campaign. 1930 hits later (yes, that's right - barring injury, Derek will be getting hit #2000 early on in the season), the man will be turning 32 during the season. Wow.
Last year, The Captain kept up the pace that he had set in 2004 after that horrific slump. As a leadoff man, he did exactly what was asked of him, which was to get on base (6th in the AL) and score runs (2nd in the AL). The RBI numbers are somewhat artificially low as the Yanks #9 hitters were awful all year long (.247 AVG/.292 OBP) but Jeter didn’t exactly help himself with his batting with runners in scoring position. Still, Derek was very even throughout the year and his splits before and after the all-star break are practically identical. However, the same can’t be said of his home and away splits. It looks like Derek has figured out how to use Yankee Stadium to the best of his abilities because he hit an amazing .354 at home and only .265 away from the Bronx. Honestly, I can’t really explain such an extreme split but it will be interesting to watch if this trend continues.
This year, Jeter will have have much better production in front and still have that fearsome protection behind him so he should get some good opportunities to drive in more runs while getting some good pitches to hit. Let's just hope he doesn't get sac-bunt happy like in 2004. Of course, and we'll see this becoming a recurring theme - he's another year older and on the wrong side of 30. I don't expect his numbers to fall off but we have to remember who we're talking about here. While Jeter has been remarkably durable for most of his career, because of the way he plays, he goes through most seasons with a good amount of injuries. That being said, Derek Jeter is "Derek Jeter". Year in, year out, he's put up numbers most other shortstops would give their fielding arm for and until he shows that he can't do it anymore, I can't find any reason to bet against him doing it again. SG, who did an analysis on Jeter recently, recapped the player in a single phrase: "He's so consistent he's almost boring". (Man, SG's getting pretty good at these one-liners).
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
| AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|
Matt wrote:
Jeter is amazing. Looking at last year's stats, I'm seeing what an incredible year he actually had. 202 hits and 77 walks? Unbelievable. He should be leading off again.