03/19: YB Community Projection: Carl Pavano
Posted by: James
Carl Pavano - Starting Pitcher
Age: 30 Years Old.
Three-Year History and splits:
Outlook: Well, they don't call the man "Glass Carl" for nothing. True to many Yankees fans' predictions at the beginning of the season, Pavano broke down after a few good starts. SG over at RLYW has taken a look at Pavano's splits and remains convinced that Pavano's start on May 17, where he threw 133 pitches, eventually led to his injury problems last season. Looking at the stats, he might be onto something there. Pavano was 4-2 with a 3.69 ERA during that time and in the following start and his peripherals were pretty good too, 5.5 Ks and 1.6 BBs per 9. He looked like, surprise surprise, Carl Pavano from 2004. From that point on, 6.46 ERA, 4.4 Ks per 9 and eminently hittable - hmm, not so good. Combine that with the continuation of his injuries into this spring and then the stories/rumors that he was unhappy in NY and he there was just a bad taste in a lot of fans' mouths.
Well, what's done is done. Pavano is under contract for three more years and you can make the case that Carl is one of the most important pieces of the 2006 season. If he can stay healthy and pitch to his ability (which he has only done once since 1998) or at least be a little better than league average, the effect on the rest of the staff is tremendous. First, it takes Jaret Wright and Aaron Small out of the equation and they can then be used as the pitchers of last resort. If he can be a good innings-eater, that puts a lot less stress on the bullpen and we have all seen what good a rested bullpen is for the postseason. If however, Pavano falls victim to the injury bug (again), Wright, Small and hopefully DeSalvo and Rasner (but they'll probably end up using Sturtze and Proctor) will be pushed to the forefront, weakening both the starting and relief pitching. But right now, you can sum up Pavano pretty quickly in a phrase, you just don't know what to expect. Will he be healthy? Will he be any good if he is? For the Yankees sakes, hopefully he is.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
Age: 30 Years Old.
Three-Year History and splits:
| SEASON | G | GS | CG | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | W | L | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 33 | 32 | 2 | 201.0 | 204 | 99 | 96 | 19 | 49 | 133 | 12 | 13 | 4.30 |
| 2004 | 31 | 31 | 2 | 222.1 | 212 | 80 | 74 | 16 | 49 | 139 | 18 | 8 | 3.00 |
| 2005 | 17 | 17 | 1 | 100.0 | 129 | 66 | 53 | 17 | 18 | 56 | 4 | 6 | 4.77 |
Outlook: Well, they don't call the man "Glass Carl" for nothing. True to many Yankees fans' predictions at the beginning of the season, Pavano broke down after a few good starts. SG over at RLYW has taken a look at Pavano's splits and remains convinced that Pavano's start on May 17, where he threw 133 pitches, eventually led to his injury problems last season. Looking at the stats, he might be onto something there. Pavano was 4-2 with a 3.69 ERA during that time and in the following start and his peripherals were pretty good too, 5.5 Ks and 1.6 BBs per 9. He looked like, surprise surprise, Carl Pavano from 2004. From that point on, 6.46 ERA, 4.4 Ks per 9 and eminently hittable - hmm, not so good. Combine that with the continuation of his injuries into this spring and then the stories/rumors that he was unhappy in NY and he there was just a bad taste in a lot of fans' mouths.
Well, what's done is done. Pavano is under contract for three more years and you can make the case that Carl is one of the most important pieces of the 2006 season. If he can stay healthy and pitch to his ability (which he has only done once since 1998) or at least be a little better than league average, the effect on the rest of the staff is tremendous. First, it takes Jaret Wright and Aaron Small out of the equation and they can then be used as the pitchers of last resort. If he can be a good innings-eater, that puts a lot less stress on the bullpen and we have all seen what good a rested bullpen is for the postseason. If however, Pavano falls victim to the injury bug (again), Wright, Small and hopefully DeSalvo and Rasner (but they'll probably end up using Sturtze and Proctor) will be pushed to the forefront, weakening both the starting and relief pitching. But right now, you can sum up Pavano pretty quickly in a phrase, you just don't know what to expect. Will he be healthy? Will he be any good if he is? For the Yankees sakes, hopefully he is.
Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:
| G | GS | Innings | W | L | BB | K | ERA |
|---|
Mike A. wrote:
I think he'll come back OK, but he won't be a $40M pitcher.