Sweeney Murti is a clever man and has come up with a list of things that have happened in between Carl Pavano's last start and his next one.:


The whole thing is actually pretty amusing so go check it out if you get a chance.

Can you feel it? Opening day is days away and the 2007 season will soon be upon us...and it's about time!

To get you a little more amped up, here are some links from around the web to get you up to speed. First off, the roster is set.


I'm glad that Villone is not on the team. He might be able to make it back at some point but he just looked awful in spring training and the Yankees just had a better option. Villone was signed to a minor league deal so he could either choose to become a free agent or take a demotion to the minors and try to work out his stuff there. At this point, either of those scenarios seem plausible.

Tyler Kepner of the NY Times checks in with the news that Phelps has been so good that he's got Joe thinking using him as the left-hander portion of a platoon with Doug Mientkiewicz. The following from the post also struck me as worth noting:


Andy seems like such a stand-up guy and after all the family issues that he had to go through last year and this spring, I hope that he gets picked up by another team and he gets to show what he can do. I wish him and his family nothing but the best.

Finally, SG, of RLYW fame, guests over at The Hardball Times and looks at the most important 5 questions facing the Yankees as they start the season while EJ Fagan over at Pending Pinstripes writes a preview of this years Trenton Thunder (AA) team.

Luis Vizcaino
Age: 32 Years Old (Turns 33 in August).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	W	L	ERA	G	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2004	Brewers	4	4	3.75	73	1	4	72.0	61	35	30	12	24	63
2005	White Sox	6	5	3.73	65	0	3	70.0	74	30	29	8	29	43
2006	Diamondbacks	4	6	3.58	70	0	2	65.1	51	26	26	8	29	72
2007	Bill James	4	4	3.65	67	0		69.0	62			9	26	63
2007	CHONE			3.84				68.0	63	32	29	9	27	57
2007	Marcel	4	5	4.15		0		65.0	62	31	30	8	27	54
2007	ZiPS	4	6	4.77	68			66.0	66	38	35	9	28	56

SEASON	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2004	Brewers	7.88	3.00	2.63	1.50	.231	1.18	.259	73.7 %	4.66
2005	White Sox	5.53	3.73	1.48	1.03	.273	1.47	.299	80.0 %	4.79
2006	Diamondbacks	9.92	3.99	2.48	1.10	.217	1.22	.277	79.7 %	4.10
2007	Bill James	8.22	3.39	2.42	1.17	.242	1.28	.287		4.29
2007	CHONE	7.54	3.57	2.11	1.19	.247	1.32	.286	75.9 %	4.57
2007	Marcel	7.48	3.74	2.00	1.11	.253	1.37	.295	75.5 %	4.52
2007	ZiPS	7.64	3.82	2.00	1.23	.262	1.42	.305	68.8 %	4.55

Outlook: I might have been the only person in northeast who was genuinely excited about Luis Vizcaino's acquisition. I am ecstatic because Luis should provide Torre with something he sorely lacked last year, a third solid option in the bullpen. Yes, I know Joe had Villone last year but he didn't use him in the first half and overused him in the second. Now, if Torre uses him, Luis should be a consistent source of quality innings (5 years of 60+ IP, 4 with ERA+ of over 110) and the addition of that has a pretty striking impact. Farnsworth and Proctor can then be used less and with his splits, it reduces the need for a second lefty (just in case Henn doesn't work out). It's actually pretty interesting - he's a righty that's good against both but especially good against lefties (.163/.281/.288/.569 last year and .214/.305/.362/.667 over the last three). He's the bizzaro Mike Stanton!

Also, over the course of the last two years, he's pitched in hitters parks and did a decent job there so the move to Yankee Stadium should help mitigate his move from the NL to the AL. Finally, another interesting thing to notice is Luis' GB ratio. Now, I don't know what he changed up in 2005 but he's got his groundball groove going now (42.8% in 2005, 45.1% in 2006) so that could work out well with an improved Yankee infield.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G	Innings	W	L	BB	K	SV	BlSv	ERA

Brian Bruney
Age: 25 Years Old (Turns 26 in February).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	W	L	ERA	G	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2004	D-Backs	3	4	4.31	30	0	1	31.1	20	16	15	2	27	34
2005	D-Backs	1	3	7.43	47	12	4	46.0	56	39	38	6	35	51
2006	R Yankees	0	0	4.91	3	0		3.2	1	2	2	0	3	5
2006	AAA D-Backs	0	1	33.75	4	0		2.2	10	12	10	2	4	4
2006	AAA Yanks	1	1	3.14	11	3		14.1	10	6	5	2	8	22
2006	Yankees	1	1	0.87	19	0	0	20.2	14	2	2	1	15	25
2007	Bill James	4	3	4.19	49	0		58.0	50			5	38	63
2007	CHONE			4.20				45.0	40	23	21	6	29	50
2007	Marcel	2	2	4.50		3		40.0	40	22	20	4	20	36
2007	ZiPS	3	3	4.75	48			53.0	47	31	28	5	35	51

SEASON	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2004	D-Backs	9.77	7.76	1.26	0.57	.185	1.50	.249	70.8 %	4.54
2005	D-Backs	9.98	6.85	1.46	1.17	.302	1.98	.388	65.1 %	5.29
2006	R Yanks	12.27	7.36	1.67	0.00	.088	1.09	.158	66.7 %	4.56
2006	AAA D-Backs	13.50	13.50	1.00	6.75	.571	5.25	.694	17.9 %	14.45
2006	AAA Yanks	13.81	5.02	2.75	1.26	.198	1.26	.303	79.0 %	3.62
2006	Yankees	10.89	6.53	1.67	0.44	.194	1.40	.281	97.9 %	3.73
2007	Bill James	9.78	5.90	1.66	0.78	.234	1.52	.309		4.27
2007	CHONE	10.00	5.80	1.72	1.20	.240	1.53	.307	76.7 %	4.78
2007	Marcel	8.10	4.50	1.80	0.90	.262	1.50	.319	70.9 %	4.35
2007	ZiPS	8.66	5.94	1.46	0.85	.239	1.55	.299	68.0 %	4.48

Outlook: When Bruney was DFA'd by the Diamondbacks, he was coming off a terrible 2005 (7.43 ERA with 51 Ks and 35 BBs in 46 IP) that he had followed up with a horrendous 4 games in AA Tuscon (2.2 IP, 4 BBs, 10 Hits, 2 HRs and 12 runs allowed). At that point, the D'backs felt he was done and designated him for assignment. Bruney then signed with the Yankees and after a few innings in AAA Columbus (22Ks and 8 BBs in 14 IP - see the recurring theme?), he was called up in August. In his first game up, he struck out the three batters he faced and didn't really slow down from that pace, striking out 25 guys over 20.6 innings with a 0.87 ERA.

Do I think that Bruney can replicate what he did last year? In a word...no. I really don't think there's a lot of people out there who would expect the same type of dominance he presented last year. He's got a good fastball (which people have said that he relies too much on) and seems to pitch to the edges of the strike zone (leading to the high number of walks). However, I do think that Brian can be effective. I mean, over his 98 innings of major-league work, he has a 10.10 K per 9 so he can obviously get guys out. However, he also has a 7.07 BB per 9 and a 1.70 WHIP over that time period and that's just not going to get it done. Name one pitcher that has had success with a walk rate that high - it's impossible. Still, with that fastball/slider combo, if he was able to bring down (and keep down) the walk rate to a more manageable 5 BB per 9 (what he did consistently in AAA) and then go from there, then we would be looking at someone who could really help the pen. Actually, we'd basically be looking at a younger, wilder Kyle Farnsworth and that ain't too bad for someone the Yankees picked up for a few pennies.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G	Innings	W	L	BB	K	SV	BlSv	ERA

Steve Swindal's chances of succeeding George Steinbrenner as Yankees' principal owner took a major hit as his wife (and daughter of the boss), Jennifer, has filed for divorce.

In a related story, I will be sending in my wedding proposal to Jennifer shortly.

Scott Proctor
Age: 30 Years Old (Turns 31 in January).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	W	L	ERA	G	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2004	Yankees	2	1	5.40	26	0	0	25.0	29	18	15	5	14	21
2005	Yankees	1	0	6.04	29	0	0	44.2	46	32	30	10	17	36
2006	Yankees	6	4	3.52	83	1	7	102.1	89	41	40	12	33	89
2007	Bill James	5	5	4.64	80	0		95.0	96			13	43	80
2007	CHONE			3.96				91.0	86	44	40	14	30	77
2007	Marcel	4	3	4.33		0		81.0	80	42	39	11	29	65
2007	ZiPS	5	4	4.60	73			90.0	90	50	46	13	33	76

SEASON	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2004	Yankees	7.56	5.04	1.50	1.80	.291	1.72	.327	69.4 %	5.80
2005	Yankees	7.25	3.43	2.12	2.01	.268	1.41	.286	64.7 %	5.77
2006	Yankees	7.83	2.90	2.70	1.06	.236	1.19	.278	77.4 %	4.01
2007	Bill James	7.58	4.07	1.86	1.23	.264	1.46	.306		4.78
2007	CHONE	7.62	2.97	2.57	1.38	.251	1.27	.286	75.5 %	4.60
2007	Marcel	7.22	3.22	2.24	1.22	.259	1.35	.297	72.2 %	4.51
2007	ZiPS	7.60	3.30	2.30	1.30	.262	1.37	.302	69.7 %	4.49

Outlook: Anyone who expected Scott Proctor to be as good as he was last year, please step forward. Okay, now that I've smacked those folks for being liars, we can all appreciate the job Scott did for the Yankees last year. Though there was much speculation that his first month of effectiveness was a fluke, he surprised a lot of people (myself included) by remaining good for the whole year. A lot of that success can be attributed to Proctor's addition and subsequent use of the sinker in his arsenal. He learned to use it quite well and as a result, his GB ratio went up while his FB ratio, and more importantly his HR per FB ratio, went down. Also, while Proctor was originally regarded as death on righties and mediocre against lefties, he changed that up last year, shutting down lefties to the tune of .204/.269/.354/.622. While this may be due to a small sample size, that's still one heck of a turnaround from 2005.

In any case, once Torre realized how effective Proctor was, he used him. A lot. Close game? Warm up Proctor. Blow-out win? Warm up Proctor. Off day? WARM UP PROCTOR! Yes, I do understand that Torre didn't have that many options at that point as Farnsworth was a little up and down but he could very well have used Villone (who at that time was wasting away) to spell Proctor even a little bit. Unfortunately, because of that, you now are putting a lot of weight on a guy who so far has had one good year and is coming off 102.3 innings (by far the most in the AL amongst relievers). Also, while we have only seen Proctor for the past few years, it's not like he's a spring chicken by any means. Still, a good amount of weight from the Yankees pen will fall on Proctor's right arm so let's just hope that Joe doesn't add Proctor to the scrap heap with the arms of Villone, Karsay and Quantrill.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G	Innings	W	L	BB	K	SV	BlSv	ERA

This is unsubstantiated by major sports outlets (but Mike A. has confirmed it and I trust him so that's good enough for me) as of yet but it's making its way through the Yankees circles that J. B. Cox has undergone Tommy John Surgery and will miss the 2007 season. My first reaction: this sucks. I honestly expected Cox to see some MLB time this year but now it looks like it will be a good long wait. First for Cox will have to recover from the surgery and then, he'll have to work his way back to pitching at the level that he was at before. What was that saying about pitching depth? Oh yeah...it doesn't exist.

Both EJ at Pending Pinstripes and Mike A. at River Ave. Blues mention the news.

Update: Pete A. over at LoHud has the update and it looks like it's not Tommy John:


Thanks for the tip Andrew.

Mike Myers
Age: 37 Years Old (Turns 38 in June).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	W	L	ERA	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2004	Seattle-Boston	5	1	4.64	75	42.2	45	22	22	5	23	32
2005	Red Sox	3	1	3.13	65	37.1	30	14	13	3	13	21
2006	Yankees	1	2	3.23	62	30.2	29	14	11	3	10	22
2007	Bill James	2	2	3.97	65	34.0	32			3	15	25
2007	CHONE			4.11		35.0	36	18	16	4	13	22
2007	Marcel	3	2	4.50		44.0	45	23	22	5	17	30
2007	ZiPS	2	2	4.25	67	36.0	36	18	17	4	15	23

SEASON	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2004	Seattle-Boston	6.75	4.85	1.39	1.05	.272	1.59	.312	76.2 %	4.98
2005	Red Sox	5.06	3.13	1.62	0.72	.222	1.15	.243	76.0 %	4.33
2006	Yankees	6.46	2.93	2.20	0.88	.251	1.27	.287	74.1 %	4.31
2007	Bill James	6.62	3.97	1.67	0.79	.250	1.38	.290		4.46
2007	CHONE	5.66	3.34	1.69	1.03	.267	1.40	.294	72.7 %	4.71
2007	Marcel	6.14	3.48	1.76	1.02	.266	1.41	.298	71.9 %	4.61
2007	ZiPS	5.75	3.75	1.53	1.00	.262	1.42	.290	72.7 %	4.62

Outlook: It was an interesting year for Mike as for the first time in a long time, he put up a reverse split with left-handed and right-handed hitters. In 2005, Myers held lefties to .158/.196/.211, whereas righties hit .385/.510/.641 but in 2006, lefties hit .257/.297/.443 while righties hit .224/.345/.286. Maybe this was a result of the changes he had been making to his delivery in spring training of last year. At that time, he wanted to see if moving from the first base side of the rubber to the third base side when facing righties would make his stride shorter and provide more movement. Whether it was that or simply a matter of small sample size remains to be seen.

Still, Myers was brought on board for one reason; the guy is the one of the most hardcore LOOGYs out there. His sidearm motion is very effective on lefties and for his career, he's held lefties to a .210 AVG over 276 innings (righties have tattooed him to a tune of .307 in 211 innings). Basically, he's very good against lefties, doesn't give up many homeruns and if these adjustments that he's made for righties remain effective, he becomes a much more useful part of the bullpen. However, with the limited use that he gets, it will be a while before we see if he really has improved against righties.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G	Innings	W	L	BB	K	SV	BlSv	ERA

Kyle Farnsworth
Age: 30 Years Old (Turns 31 in April).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	W	L	ERA	G	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2004	Cubs	4	5	4.73	72	0	4	66.2	67	39	35	10	33	78
2005	Tigers-Braves	1	1	2.19	72	16	2	70.0	44	18	17	5	27	87
2006	Yankees	3	6	4.36	72	6	4	66.0	62	34	32	8	28	75
2007	Bill James	4	3	3.77	67	2		62.0	55			7	27	67
2007	CHONE			3.49				67.0	58	28	26	8	26	72
2007	Marcel	3	4	4.15		6		65.0	61	32	30	8	26	64
2007	ZiPS	4	2	4.16	72			67.0	60	34	31	9	29	67

SEASON	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2004	Cubs	10.53	4.46	2.36	1.35	.263	1.50	.341	71.6 %	4.39
2005	Tigers-Braves	11.19	3.47	3.22	0.64	.182	1.01	.261	83.6 %	2.93
2006	Yankees	10.23	3.82	2.68	1.09	.250	1.36	.327	71.4 %	3.82
2007	Bill James	9.73	3.92	2.48	1.02	.239	1.32	.308		3.91
2007	CHONE	9.67	3.49	2.77	1.07	.235	1.25	.300	77.8 %	3.90
2007	Marcel	8.86	3.60	2.46	1.11	.250	1.34	.308	73.3 %	4.12
2007	ZiPS	9.00	3.90	2.31	1.21	.241	1.33	.295	72.0 %	4.24

Outlook: Well, I mentioned Farnsworth's pattern at the beginning of last year. Odd years - good/great seasons, even years - mediocrity. I also said that while he has been uneven, the general direction of his seasons has been better. Well, he proved me correct on both counts. 2006 was definitely a step down from 2005 but you know what, his peripherals still weren't horrible. He gave up a line of .243/.315/.376/.691, which again, wasn't nearly as bad as his last bad season (2004) when it was .260/.348/.426/.769 which was then a far cry from his previous off seasons (2002: .293/.370/.558/.924 and 2000: .291/.392/.476/.864).

Looking forward to 2007, there's still a lot to like about Farnsworth. I mean, come on; with that arm and his propensity for the strikeout (9.69 K per 9 for his career - always a nice way to get out of a tight spot), he should be perfect for those high-leverage situations. However, back issues, mental toughness questions and the inability to be used consistently on back to back days have taken him out of Torre's circle of trust and as such, we'll have to wait and see about his continued use in those high leverage situations. Finally, it was interesting to hear that Farnsworth was working on a changeup and a sinker. Ron Guidry suggested it at the end of last season as a way to keep hitters from sitting dead red and Kyle's been working on it. If he can pull it off, great - otherwise, I just hope that he doesn't hurt himself because 2007 should be a very good for Kyle Farnsworth.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G	Innings	W	L	BB	K	SV	BlSv	ERA

From the press release announcing the latest Jeter shoe:


I hope they can add a stripe next year...

Full press release below.

» Read More

Jeff Karstens received some good news:


Peter Abraham mentioned that Bobby Murcer has been approved for a clinical trial and had his first dose of a vaccine today.

Tony Gicas points to Project A13, a website/project dedicated to getting Yankees fans to support A-Rod.

Mariano Rivera
Age: 37 Years Old (Turns 38 in November).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	W	L	ERA	G	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2004	Yankees	4	2	1.94	74	53	4	78.2	65	17	17	3	20	66
2005	Yankees	7	4	1.38	71	43	4	78.1	50	18	12	2	18	80
2006	Yankees	5	5	1.80	63	34	3	75.0	61	16	15	3	11	55
2007	Bill James	5	2	2.57	60	42		70.0	56			3	15	60
2007	CHONE			3.04				77.0	70	28	26	6	17	58
2007	Marcel	5	4	3.09		28		70.0	63	25	24	5	18	55
2007	ZiPS	8	1	2.01	68			76.0	61	18	17	3	15	66

SEASON	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2004	Yankees	7.55	2.29	3.30	0.34	.227	1.08	.285	85.1 %	2.97
2005	Yankees	9.19	2.07	4.44	0.23	.185	0.87	.254	78.0 %	2.33
2006	Yankees	6.60	1.32	5.00	0.36	.224	0.96	.270	83.8 %	2.89
2007	Bill James	7.71	1.93	4.00	0.39	.221	1.01	.278		2.86
2007	CHONE	6.78	1.99	3.41	0.70	.244	1.13	.287	76.3 %	3.52
2007	Marcel	7.07	2.31	3.06	0.64	.242	1.16	.289	76.9 %	3.50
2007	ZiPS	7.82	1.78	4.40	0.36	.222	1.00	.281	80.8 %	2.57

Outlook: I'm blatantly ripping off what I wrote about Mariano last year...if only because Mo keeps raising the bar. I mean, we all know what Rivera has done to this point in his career; 2.29 ERA, 600 GF, 413 SVs. In 881 innings, 691 Hits, 783 Ks, 226 BBs, 45 HRs. 8-1 with 34 SVs and a 0.80 ERA in 113 postseason innings. Simply staggering numbers...and it's not like the man has slowed down. It's actually even more impressive when you remember that the whispers about the end started when Rivera posted ERAs over 2 for all three years between the 2000 and 2002 seasons and lost part of the 2002 season to injury. Since then, the numbers don't lie: 272 G, 303 Innings, 237 Hits, 264 Ks, 59 BBs - 252 GF, 170 SV - 1.69 ERA, 7.9 K and 1.8 BB per 9 and .33 HRs a game. Just...wow.

Last year was much of the same from Mo. As with 2005, Mo started out slow and then was a steamroller for the rest of the year (take out the first six games of the season and his line was a 1.46 ERA, 51 hits, 9 BBs and 48Ks in 67.2 innings). However, there were some issues as Rivera was out with elbow trouble for much of September. Still, 34 saves compared to 3 blown ones is not too shabby, especially if you conisder that Joe didn't take his own "I'm going to lean on Rivera less" advice to heart. Mariano missed just about 3 weeks and yet only pitched in 8 less games and 3 less innings than 2005.

In 2007, I really do believe that Mariano will continue to excel and honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if he has a better year. Here's my reasoning; a) it's a walk year (if he signs somewhere else...wait, no, not even going to think about it) and b) the addition of Luis Vizcaino solidifies a bullpen that for much of last year didn't have a set third guy after Proctor and Farnsworth. If Vizcaino doesn't work out or Torre doesn't want to give him the opportunity, there will still be a full year of Brian Bruney and if that fails, Chris Britton, et. al. are waiting in the wings. Finally, the talk of adding a change-up to Mariano's arsenal doesn't hurt matters either. It doesn't matter if the pitch never sees the the light of day...the perception is what matters, though it's not like he needs the help.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G	Innings	W	L	BB	K	SV	BlSv	ERA

And we won't stop:

Lisa Kennelly mentions that Wang threw with Gator yesterday morning and said he felt fine. And afterward:

It is beginning to look like Carl Pavano may go from goat to opening day starter (and quite possibly still a goat) when the Yankees begin their season at home against Tampa Bay next Monday. In other words, Pavano could realistically eclipse his wins total, strikeout total, innings pitched and appearance total from last year in the first game of 2007. No real rhyme or reason behind it other than Monday simply falling on his spot in the rotation.

Works for me. It doesn't really matter to me who starts first. Everybody who is healthy is going to pitch eventually anyway.

Mike Mussina
Age: 38 Years Old (Turns 39 in December).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2003	Yankees	17	8	3.40	31	31	2	214.2	192	86	81	21	40	195
2004	Yankees	12	9	4.59	27	27	1	164.2	178	91	84	22	40	132
2005	Yankees	13	8	4.41	30	30	2	179.2	199	93	88	23	47	142
2006	Yankees	15	7	3.51	32	32	1	197.1	184	88	77	22	35	172
2007	Bill James	14	7	3.60	32	32		190.0	188			22	40	161
2007	CHONE			3.77				186.0	189	85	78	24	39	146
2007	Marcel	12	8	4.27				177.0	188	91	84	22	44	141
2007	ZiPS	13	8	3.91	30	30		184.0	189	88	80	21	43	148

SEASON	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2003	Yankees	8.18	1.68	4.88	0.88	.241	1.08	.294	72.5 %	3.26
2004	Yankees	7.21	2.19	3.30	1.20	.277	1.32	.319	68.2 %	4.10
2005	Yankees	7.11	2.35	3.02	1.15	.282	1.37	.326	72.5 %	4.19
2006	Yankees	7.84	1.60	4.91	1.00	.248	1.11	.296	70.4 %	3.51
2007	Bill James	7.63	1.89	4.03	1.04	.260	1.20	.307		3.71
2007	CHONE	7.06	1.89	3.74	1.16	.265	1.23	.304	74.5 %	4.05
2007	Marcel	7.17	2.24	3.20	1.12	.274	1.31	.317	70.8 %	4.05
2007	ZiPS	7.24	2.10	3.44	1.03	.267	1.26	.312	71.1 %	3.78

Outlook: I said at the beginning of the 2006 season that if anyone can figure out a way to work and thrive with a new set of tools, the Moose from Stanford can. At that point, Mussina's fastball was topping out at 90 mph (he had barely even touched that high early on in 2005) when he used to consistently hit the low 90s. I couldn't figure out if his two sub-par seasons were mainly due to injuries or simply erosion of skills.

Well, Moose blew that latter thought right out of the water with a great contract year performance. His final line over 197.1 IP was impressive; 172 strikeouts (8th in the AL), the 4th best ERA in the AL as well as the the 3rd best WHIP and BAA. Though he did show less of a propensity to go long in his starts, he got his K rate back up while driving his BB rate and BAA down. Now what was the cause of the turnaround? Was it the spring training discovery by Jorge Posada that Mussina was tipping his changeup? Was it that Mike was finally healthy for most of the year? Or was it simply the contract year phenomena coming into play? Whatever the case, Mussina was consistently solid for the full year and that translated into a new two-year, $23 million contract in the offseason.

So what can we look forward to from Moose in 2007? Well, if he's healthy, I would expect much of the same from Mussina though there are obviously concerns that need to be factored in. As with Andy Pettitte, age is certainly a concern for Mussina as he's logged 3,210 innings over his career and 135 innings in the postseason. To give you a little perspective, from just the 2002 season on, Mike threw a total of 15,211 pitches and that's even accounting for two years where he had arm troubles. Still, this is Mike Mussina where talking about here...a potential Hall of Famer who could solidify his place in history with two more good seasons. As smart as Moose is, I'd wager that he's well aware of where he stands on the all time ranks and I'm sure that he knows what he needs to do to guarantee himself a trip to Cooperstown...his body just has to cooperate.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G	GS	Innings	W	L	BB	K	ERA

I'm bummed about Wang going down. I was looking forward to seeing a home grown, 27 year old coming off a Cy quality season, getting the start on opening day.

There are two main implications here. First, Peter Abraham says (noting that he'll be pitching on 643 days rest) that it looks like Carl Pavano will be your opening day starter.

The other one is that Spring Training hot (and solid last year) Jeff Karstens is now lined up for the 5th spot in the rotation. Karstens is 24. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does in the rotation to start the season. I suppose that's a positive here. (Or, hopefully, it will be).

Kei Igawa
Age: 27 Years Old (Turns 28 in July).

Japanese League History.

SEASON	Team	G	CG	GS	W	L	IP	H	HR	BB	K	R	ER	ERA
2001	HT	29	3	25	9	13	192	174	11	89	171	76	57	2.67
2002	HT	31	8	21	14	9	209	163	15	53	206	63	58	2.49
2003	HT	29	8	21	20	5	206	184	15	58	179	72	64	2.80
2004	HT	29	6	23	14	11	200	190	29	54	228	95	83	3.73
2005	HT	27	2	25	13	9	172	199	23	60	145	91	74	3.86
2006	HT	29	8	21	14	9	209	180	17	49	194	77	69	2.97

Outlook: Kei is probably the player that Yankees fans have the least expectations for...if only because no one knows right now what kind of pitcher he can be. I mean, at least Carl Pavano has some sort of track record in the majors so you can project somewhat. No one really knows how Igawa's stuff will translate from the Japanese leagues.

Well, what do we know at this point? Igawa was one of the best and most durable left-handed starters in Japan. His rep. seems to be that he has a average to below-average tailing fastball that sits in the high 80s and can be kicked up to the low 90s on occasion. His other pitches look to be what has been called a slider/curve/slurve in the high 70s and so far, has shown no issues with throwing off-speed stuff when behind hitters. He was scouted as having average command and plus control, though that has been hard to see this spring training. However, both Torre and Posada have actually commended Igawa’s pitches (though what else are they going to say?) but obviously, they need to the consistency of the pitches improve. A lot of people have mentioned that Kei seemed to be overthrowing sometimes so maybe he was trying to impress his teammates (hey, that would be only natural). Still, he is teachable and when Ron Guidry' advised him on how to better finish his delivery, he readily followed the instructions and it seems to have helped.

In any case, this assortment of pitches, despite his makeup and aggressiveness on the mound, does not make up a potential ace. Heck, Cashman himself said that Igawa would be making tons of adjustments in his first year so not to expect a ton (well, not in those exact words, he's quite a bit more eloquent than I am). So the first question will be; can he get out hitters consistently in the AL? At that point, depending on effectiveness of course, the question evolves into where Kei slots. Is he good enough to be an innings eater in rotation (is he a #3/#4/#5?) or will he end up in the pen as long-man and take Ron Villone's job? Considering Igawa's signed for the next five years ($26MM bid, $20 MM over 5 years), it will be interesting to find just what the Yankees have purchased because I don't think the Japanese league takes refunds (see Matsui, Kaz).

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G	GS	Innings	W	L	BB	K	ERA

Carl Pavano
Age: 31 Years Old (Turns 32 in January).

Three-Year History and three-year splits.

SEASON	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2004	Marlins	18	8	3.00	31	31	2	222.1	212	80	74	16	49	139
2005	Yankees	4	6	4.77	17	17	1	100.0	129	66	53	17	18	56
2006	Yankees (A+)	0	2	2.31	3	3	0	11.2	10	6	3	2	3	10
2006	Yankees (AA)	1	0	1.64	3	3	0	11.0	6	2	2	0	0	12
2006	Yankees (AAA)	1	0	3.00	1	1	0	6.0	8	2	2	0	1	5
2007	Bill James	5	4	4.15	14	14		78.0	84			8	20	50
2007	CHONE			4.40				90.0	99	48	44	13	22	53
2007	Marcel	4	4	4.50				70.0	79	38	35	9	18	45
2007	ZiPS	8	7	4.64	20	20		128.0	150	73	66	16	30	66

SEASON	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2004	Marlins	5.63	1.98	2.84	0.65	.253	1.17	.287	76.9 %	3.69
2005	Yankees	5.04	1.62	3.11	1.53	.314	1.47	.331	67.8 %	5.07
2006	Yankees (A+)	7.71	2.31	3.33	1.54	.233	1.11	.259	71.4 %	4.74
2006	Yankees (AA)	9.82	0.00	12.00	0.00	.162	0.55	.240	71.4 %	1.29
2006	Yankees (AAA)	7.50	1.50	5.00	0.00	.321	1.50	.402	77.8 %	2.03
2007	Bill James	5.77	2.31	2.50	0.92	.276	1.33	.309		4.17
2007	CHONE	5.30	2.20	2.41	1.30	.281	1.34	.300	72.1 %	4.77
2007	Marcel	5.79	2.31	2.50	1.16	.286	1.39	.315	71.3 %	4.53
2007	ZiPS	4.64	2.11	2.20	1.13	.294	1.41	.312	67.9 %	4.50

Outlook: "Glass Carl" took his game to another level last year. Pavano broke down after a few good starts in 2005 and Yanks fans haven't seen him pitch in a MLB game since then. Combine that with the sometimes absurd assortment of injuries and the stories/rumors that he was/is unhappy in NY and I think you can imagine the bad taste in most fan's mouths.

Well, as I said last year...what's done is done. Pavano is still under contract for two more years and it is in everyone's best interest that Pavano pitch...and pitch well. That's the only way this can work out for the Yankees if they want any sort of return on their $40 million dollar investment. Don't forget, this guy can actually be a good pitcher. He's got a good fastball that he can locate anywhere in the strike zone, a good slider and a decent splitter and change-up. There was a reason he was being pursued so hard by teams when he was a free agent, so if he can stay healthy and pitch to his ability (which he has only done once since 1998), maybe the Yankees will actually see the pitcher they signed so long ago.

Still, to do this, Pavano will have to somehow overcome his own bad luck and injury-riddled nature. If he can somehow stay healthy, there are still a lot of questions to be answered. I mean, who knows what kind of arm strength Pavano has built up to this point? When you combine a history of arm trouble with extended time off from from pitching, it doesn't exactly bode well for a full healthy season. On a personal level, he will also have to win back the trust of the fans, and more importantly, the rest of his teammates. What kind of effect this will have on his pitching remains to be seen. In the end, I guess all we know about Pavano is that we just don't know what he can or will contribute to the Yankees this year. Your guess is as good as mine.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G	GS	Innings	W	L	BB	K	ERA

Looks like the Yanks will be starting the season without their 2006 ace, as it appears Chien-Ming Wang pulled a hamstring while sprinting on Friday.

Kudos to Kei Igawa for now being able to make this team by default without Torre having to be drilled by the media and kudos to myself for not putting in my projections for Wang this year before this story broke.

From Yahoo! Sports:


He'll now begin experimental treatments.

I guess the biggest piece would be Alex Belth's sit down with the man, the myth, the legend...and erstwhile blogger, Curt Schilling. It doesn't matter what you think of the man himself, the interview is certainly worth a look (and the accompanying picture in the interview is...less than flattering).

Oh, and have I mentioned that I love Peter A.'s sense of humor?

Speaking of humor, Bronx Comix is pretty funny in its own right. If you haven't checked that site out, I can vouch for it - it's good stuff.

Another great site that I stumbled upon recently (mostly due to Mike A. over at River Ave Blues) is Project Prospect. They have a good group of guys who do a lot of good work on the minor leagues, prospects and up and coming players. They also dabble in fantasy baseball and advanced metrics but what caught my eye was a recent article on how soon Phil Hughes can help the Yankees.

Finally, Dayn Perry at FoxSports has a list of some impressive milestones that can be reached in 2007.

Andy Pettitte
Age: 34 Years Old (Turns 35 in June).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2003	Yankees	21	8	4.02	33	33	1	208.1	227	109	93	21	50	180
2004	Astros	6	4	3.90	15	15	0	83.0	71	37	36	8	31	79
2005	Astros	17	9	2.39	33	33	0	222.1	188	66	59	17	41	171
2006	Astros	14	13	4.20	36	35	2	214.1	238	114	100	27	70	178
2007	Bill James	13	11	3.69	33	33		210.0	214			19	60	164
2007	CHONE			4.10				193.0	207	96	88	22	57	136
2007	Marcel	12	10	3.95				189.0	193	90	83	21	57	150
2007	ZiPS	15	9	4.10	32	31		193.0	204	96	88	24	50	140

SEASON	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2003	Yankees	7.78	2.16	3.60	0.91	.279	1.33	.336	68.0 %	3.52
2004	Astros	8.57	3.36	2.55	0.87	.233	1.23	.289	71.6 %	3.67
2005	Astros	6.92	1.66	4.17	0.69	.231	1.03	.273	79.7 %	3.25
2006	Astros	7.47	2.94	2.54	1.13	.283	1.44	.331	72.0 %	4.18
2007	Bill James	7.03	2.57	2.73	0.81	.265	1.30	.313		3.71
2007	CHONE	6.34	2.66	2.39	1.03	.276	1.37	.312	72.6 %	4.24
2007	Marcel	7.14	2.71	2.63	1.00	.266	1.32	.310	72.9 %	4.01
2007	ZiPS	6.53	2.33	2.80	1.12	.273	1.32	.308	71.7 %	4.14

Outlook: For the Yankees' biggest acquisition of the offseason, 2006 was certainly an up and down season. Actually, check that. Pettitte had one heck of a bad start and after his 13th start of the year on June 3rd, his line stood at 4-7 with a 6.03 ERA. From that point on, he was lights out and over his last 22 starts and 136.2 innings, he gave up 137 hits, walked 43 and struck out 122 while maintaining a 3.16 ERA. That was impressive enough for the Yankees to swoop in and bring Andy back for a cool 16 million (and an player option next year for the same).

Of course, there are risks with all pitchers and Pettitte is no exception. First, there's the question of his age. Andy is certainly no spring chicken and has 2,312 regular season and 212 postseason innings of wear and tear on his arm. Then you have the issue of Andy's transition back to the American League after 3 years in the weaker league (trading in having to face a pitcher versus a DH is no joke). Other concerns revolve around the health of Andy's elbow though he's pitched two consecutive 200 IP seasons (222, 214 IP respectively) after an injury plagued 2004.

After considering all that, I guess the final question becomes; if healthy, which 34 year old NL pitcher are we now discounting? The workhorse who averaged out to a 4.20 ERA last season or the #1/#2 pitcher who threw up a 3.2 ERA over his last 22 starts? When you add in a .5 run league adjustment, you're talking about a fairly large difference in production. In either case, for this Yankee fan, it doesn't matter that Andy and his family actually live in Houston...it's nice to see him back home in the Bronx.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G	GS	Innings	W	L	BB	K	ERA

From SI.com:


Via MLB.com.

Chien-Ming Wang
Age: 26 Years Old (Turns 27 March 31st).

Two-Year History, two-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2005	Yankees	8	5	4.02	18	17	0	116.1	113	58	52	9	32	47
2006	Yankees	19	6	3.63	34	33	2	218.0	233	92	88	12	52	76
2007	Bill James	14	10	3.91	32	32		214.0	237			15	53	102
2007	CHONE			4.10				182.0	207	90	83	15	45	74
2007	Marcel	14	7	3.97				179.0	187	83	79	14	49	81
2007	ZiPS	12	9	4.28	29	28		183.0	202	95	87	16	48	79

SEASON	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2005	Yankees	3.64	2.48	1.47	0.70	.256	1.25	.270	67.2 %	4.38
2006	Yankees	3.14	2.15	1.46	0.50	.275	1.31	.291	72.2 %	3.96
2007	Bill James	4.29	2.23	1.92	0.63	.282	1.36	.307		3.97
2007	CHONE	3.66	2.23	1.64	0.74	.287	1.38	.304	70.8 %	4.28
2007	Marcel	4.07	2.46	1.65	0.70	.270	1.32	.290	71.2 %	4.20
2007	ZiPS	3.89	2.36	1.65	0.79	.281	1.37	.299	68.1 %	4.26

Outlook: Chien-Ming Wang is an enimga. To some, he's an overachiever who will fall back to earth soon, a pure statistical anomaly. To others, he's a star in the making. However, to Yankees' fans (and the people of Taiwan), it doesn't matter - he's a fan favorite. He is home-grown, throws strikes and goes deep into games while going about his business like a stand-up guy.

After a first year where he helped to solidify an unstable and fragile Yankees' rotation, there were a lot of questions raised over what Obi-Wang could realistically provide the Yankees. First and foremost, there were durability concerns. 218 innings last year, 5th in the AL, answered that one. Success with such a low K rate? Last year, he was the AL's 2nd best pitcher (coming in second in AL Cy Young race) with an even lower K rate. Was he just lucky? His BABIP last year was .21 points higher than 05 and he still had success. On top of that, he showed better walk numbers and a lower HR rate.

Is this sustainable? The biased Yankee part of me says yes and you know what, the value analyst in me agrees. I get it, he has a great power sinker with no real great secondary pitches..but people tend to forget that Neil Allen only taught Wang the sinker before the 2005 season at AAA Columbus. Amazingly enough, Wang is still learning to use the pitch! Second, a true sinker-baller is only as good as the defense behind him and the Yankee defense should be better for him this whole season. Finally, Chien-Ming is now more than a full year removed from shoulder problems and any restrictions placed on him last year are fully off. All those should combine for an interesting season from the defacto ace of the Yankees.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

G	GS	Innings	W	L	BB	K	ERA

Peter Abraham talks about a safety demonstration put on by MLB.

For each player presented, we'll give you his three year stat profile (and an quick outlook provided by yours truly). Based on all that, we'll be asking everyone to post your reasoned estimates/optimistic projections/wild guesses of each players batting/pitching line for 2007.

The basic premise is that the more predictions we get, the more realistic the community projection will be. I first saw the idea in use over at John Sickels' Minor League Baseball site and with Mr. Sickels' blessing, we've brought it over here. Here's the roster:

C: Jorge Posada
1B: Doug Meintkiewicz
2B: Robinson Cano
SS: Derek Jeter
3B: Alex Rodriguez
LF: Hideki Matsui
CF: Johnny Damon
RF: Bobby Abreu
DH: Jason Giambi
Bench: Melky Cabrera

SP: Chien-Ming Wang
SP: Mike Mussina
SP: Andy Pettitte
SP: Carl Pavano
SP: Kei Igawa

RP: Kyle Farnsworth
RP: Scott Proctor
RP: Luis Vizcaino
RP: Brian Bruney
RP: Mike Myers

CL: Mariano Rivera

Well, I've got the hitters pretty much wrapped up and posted. I'll be putting up an index page shortly of all the players I have posted so far and am going to cover in the next week and a half. Unfortunately, I don't have the time to cover the rest of the bench (Todd Pratt, Andy Phillips/Josh Phelps & Miguel Cairo) but seriously, if Pratt or Cairo are going to be impact players on the 2007 Yankees...something must have gone very wrong.

I'll be starting up with the pitcher posts in a short while and for the most part, I'd say that the bullpen roster is set. I'm keeping Bruney over Britton and Igawa over Karstens for those that are interested, though my choice did raise a good question. Should I put posts up for guys that might have some value as call-ups (i.e Jeff Karstens, Phil Hughes, Chris Britton, T.J. Beam, etc.)?

Do you think they will have an impact on the season and if so, should I ask for projections on them now or wait until they actually get the call? I'm leaning towards the latter for the time being. In any case, since I'm just about at the half-way point, I'll start asking people to take a little bit of time to post your projections. This little exercise only gets better if we get more people and more input so if you haven't added your thoughts yet, please do so, and if possible, ask some of your Yankees buddies to do so as well.

Melky Cabrera
Age: 22 Years Old (Turns 23 in August).

Two-Year History (check out the sponsor!), two-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	G	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2005	Yankees	6	19	4	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	.211
2006	AAA	31	122	47	35	6	2	4	19		10	9	3	1	.385
2006	Yankees	130	460	129	94	26	2	7	75	50	56	59	12	5	.280
2007	Bill James	105	364	104	75	19	2	8	55	47	36	45	9	3	.286
2007	CHONE		558	163	114	32	3	14	74	72	57	80	11	4	.292
2007	Marcel		408	118	84	23	2	9	66	49	47	57	10	4	.289
2007	ZiPS		584	172	123	28	3	18	93	92	55	67	12	5	.295

SEASON	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
2005	Yankees	0.0 %	10.5 %	0.00	.211	.211	.421	.000	.235
2006	AAA	7.6 %	7.4 %	1.11	.432	.566	.997	.180	.394
2006	Yankees	10.9 %	12.8 %	0.95	.360	.391	.752	.111	.310
2007	BillJames	9.0 %	12.4 %	0.80	.352	.415	.766	.129	.309
2007	CHONE	9.3 %	14.3 %	0.71	.361	.435	.796	.143	.321
2007	Marcel	10.3 %	14.0 %	0.82	.365	.422	.787	.132	.319
2007	ZiPS	8.6 %	11.5 %	0.82	.355	.445	.800	.150	.309

Outlook: To say that Melky's second run for the Yankees in 2006 was a blessing would be an understatement. When Gary Sheffield went down, Cabrera was called up and earned the full-time gig by starting out hot, hitting .318/.392/.394/.786 in May and flashing some leather in OF. However, it seemed that El Leche would fizzle out just as quickly when he put up an anemic June line of .214/.312/.296/.608. At that point, I'm sure there were a lot of Yankees fans who might have agreed with John Sickels regarding Melky's bat (which he later publicly revised). Luckily for the Yankees, Melky proved he could make adjustments and from his low point on June 19th, he put up a .295/.365/.422/.787 line with a 36:46 BB:K ratio while adding 10 SBs (3 CS). Not too shabby for someone in his Age 21 season, no?

In any case, the really important question is now; where does the Melkman go from here? Should this be the best we can expect from him? I mean, a .400 SLG is probably not adequate from the corner OFer on a championship team. Still, Melky played well enough for practically a full year and put up a league average OPS+ at 21, something not too many people can boast about. Based on that (and the combined age of the Yankees OF), I would say that he deserves a shot to show the team what he can offer. If he can continue to control the strike zone, play a good OF and show a even a little bit more pop, this could get very interesting. With his positive attitude, a good work ethic and a solid support system on the team, I wouldn't put it past Melky to show continued improvement. Remember, people never expected Cano to be as good as he has been so far so take that as you will.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG

The MLB 07: The Show people have released their predictions for the 2007 season (well, most of them, anyway).

They've got the Yankees as the best team in baseball at 103-59... just ahead of the Padres at 102-60. Wang wins the Cy after winning 20 games and finishing with a 3.38 ERA. Mo wins the Rolaids Relief award with 44 saves and a 3.93 ERA (jeez... let's hope that that last part doesn't come true). They have the Red Sox taking the wild card and the Yankees facing the Indians (85-77) in the first round.

They don't have any playoff predictions. Those will be released after the all-star break.

Jason Giambi
Age: 36 Years Old (Turns 37 in January).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	G	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2004	Yankees	80	264	55	34	9	0	12	33	40	47	62	0	1	.208
2005	Yankees	139	417	113	67	14	0	32	74	87	108	109	0	0	.271
2006	Yankees	139	446	113	51	25	0	37	92	113	110	106	2	0	.253
2007	Bill James	135	424	112	60	22	0	30	77	91	99	104	1	1	.264
2007	CHONE		451	116	62	22	0	32	93	83	96	108	1	0	.257
2007	Marcel		435	109	60	20	0	29	75	88	91	104	2	1	.251
2007	ZiPS		394	95	51	17	0	27	70	97	91	97	1	0	.241

SEASON	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
2004	Yankees	15.1 %	23.5 %	0.76	.342	.379	.720	.170	.226
2005	Yankees	20.6 %	26.1 %	0.99	.440	.535	.975	.264	.293
2006	Yankees	19.8 %	23.8 %	1.04	.413	.558	.971	.305	.251
2007	Bill James	18.9 %	24.5 %	0.95	.419	.528	.947	.264	.283
2007	CHONE	17.6 %	23.9 %	0.89	.405	.519	.924	.262	.270
2007	Marcel	17.3 %	23.9 %	0.88	.393	.497	.890	.246	.265
2007	ZiPS	18.8 %	24.6 %	0.94	.400	.490	.890	.249	.252

Outlook: Well, from 2005 on, Jason has been inconsistent in his inconsistency. In 2005, he was bad in the first half, great in the second but for 2006, he decided to change it up a little. Why be consistent for a full half – let's go up and down every month. If you don't believe me, just look at the splits – you can get out of breath just looking at these peaks and valleys! When Jason was good, he was one of the best, and most patient, hitters in the majors. When he was bad, the man couldn't buy a hit. Still, even in those down times, he remained a patient hitter, working counts and wearing down starters. By the end of the year, Giambi finished with numbers any Yankee fan would take; .253/.413/.558 with 37 HRs and 113 RBIs, a season that would arguably be his second best year in pinstripes. There were other positives as well; he walked more than he struck out and badgered pitchers to the tune of 4.37 pitches per plate appearance. If anything, 2006 proved that his surge in 2005 was no fluke. Jason can still hit, is the best in the league at getting on base and can still mash. Honestly, his season would probably have been even better had he not gotten hurt (or more hurt) at the end of the season and therein lies the issue.

Everyone knows of Giambi's predilection to hit quite a bit better while playing first base (.224/.373/.531/.904 as a DH vs. .289/.459/.592/1.051 as a 1B). I don't know why it is but it just seems to be how Jason operates. It has been looked at repeatedly but humor me and look again at his splits as a DH since 2000 and as a 1B. Actually, 2006 was one of his better years as a DH – he actually slugged over .500, which was a first since 2001. Whatever the reason, Jason wants to be, and is a more potent weapon as, a first baseman. However, he simply cannot do it anymore. When he was sent out to the field last year, he didn't completely embarrass himself but it was getting close. His limited range keeps being whittled down even more each year, he has a bad/no arm and most importantly, wears down quickly. At 36 and on the books for an untradeable amount of $21 million a year for this year and next (not including his $5 buyout in 2009), the Yanks have decided to take the chance that a permanent move to DH gives them a less potent, but more healthy Giambi for the remainder of the contract.

In addition to that, the move should also help to protect Giambi's mercurial knee (injured in 2004) from further injury. This in turn would would allow Giambi to concentrate less on pulling the ball and more on spraying balls to all fields, which would make the shift usually employed against him less effective. Finally, Giambi is also probably due for a little bit of luck to swing his way as he was one of the unluckier players in baseball last year in terms of BABIP so this is one instance where a regression to the mean would come in handy.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG

The YanksBlog.com Fantasy Baseball League drafted yesterday. The lineup: myself, Seamus, The American Idiots (my brother, Sean), terpballaz, The Holy Muffins, Hip Hip Jorge, yanks#27in07 and Sports!!!

Poor Sean... he got the 1st pick for what I think is the first time in his life, but he had to work. Oh well, that's an auto Pujols, anyway, I think. The draft order was The American Idiots, terpballaz, me, yanks#27in07, Hip Hop Jorge, Sports!!!, Seamus and The Holy Muffins. The first round went like this: Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez, Jose Reyes, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Howard and David Ortiz. Yankees, divided by team:

The American Idiots: Abreu.
terpballaz: None.
The Holy Muffins: Matsui.
Seamus: Damon.
Hip Hip Jorge: None.
yanks#27in07: Mussina.
Sports!!!: None.
Me: Posada, Giambi, Cano, Rodriguez, Jeter, Rivera, Wang and Pettitte.

Thanks to everyone who participated and good luck this season. :)

Bobby Abreu
Age: 33 Years Old (Turns 34 next March).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	G	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2004	Phillies	159	574	173	95	47	1	30	118	105	127	116	40	5	.301
2005	Phillies	162	588	168	106	37	1	24	104	102	117	134	31	9	.286
2006	Phills-Yanks	156	548	163	105	41	2	15	98	107	124	138	30	6	.297
2007	Bill James	160	588	170	104	43	2	21	104	99	123	141	26	9	.289
2007	CHONE		529	148	98	32	1	17	106	78	109	129	25	5	.280
2007	Marcel		504	146	90	35	2	19	90	90	99	115	27	6	.290
2007	ZiPS		534	153	98	34	1	20	89	98	114	122	28	7	.287

SEASON	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
2004	Phillies	18.1 %	20.2 %	1.09	.428	.544	.971	.242	.334
2005	Phillies	16.6 %	22.8 %	0.87	.405	.474	.879	.189	.335
2006	Phillies-Yankees	18.5 %	25.2 %	0.90	.424	.462	.886	.164	.375
2007	Bill James	17.3 %	24.0 %	0.87	.415	.476	.891	.187	.350
2007	CHONE	17.1 %	24.4 %	0.84	.407	.440	.847	.161	.342
2007	Marcel	16.4 %	22.8 %	0.86	.406	.480	.886	.190	.343
2007	ZiPS	17.6 %	22.8 %	0.93	.414	.466	.880	.179	.339

Outlook: Traded to the Yankees at the trading deadline, Bobby had 209 ABs in Yankee pinstripes and he made them count, going .330/.419/.507 in that span (which coincidentally, is pretty close to Jeter's stat line for the full year). Everyone knows Abreu's game by now; he is a remarkably patient hitter and takes his share of walks (his 124 BBs would have led either league had he been eligible) and strikeouts (138 Ks). After he switched leagues, perhaps after a concerted change in his approach at the plate, Abreu put a few more balls in the air, helping him in the XBH and SLG category as a few of those fly balls ended up going out. Other than that, he is an on base machine who fits very well into the Yankee line up. His acquisition allows Torre to put a left handed version of Derek Jeter (though Abreu is more patient) in the line up right after the Captain. As a bonus, Bobby averaged 4.44 pitches a plate appearance as a Yankee, which when combined with Jason Giambi behind him, will help wear pitchers down and get the Yankees into the other team's bulllpen early.

Bobby is currently rehabbing a stained oblique but the injury is not expected to cost him significant time (or more importantly, effectiveness). Also, Abreu will be in a modified-walk year as he would be playing for the Yankees to pick up his $16MM option at the end of the year. Who knows, perhaps we could see a contract year big-time season. Actually, it'll be interesting to see how Abreu ages as his closest comparison through age 32 is none other than Bernie Williams, who had his last great season at age 33.

Still, the important number to keep an eye on this year will probably be Bobby's SLG percent as Abreu's power outage (relatively speaking) has been well documented since the 2005 All-Star Break. However, even with diminished power, Abreu is a great addition to the Yankees lineup; a professional hitter with great on-base skills, good instincts on the basepaths and is someone the third in a line of 3 players who could each put up a 20-20 season.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG

Johnny Damon
Age: 33 Years Old (Turns 34 in November).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	G	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2004	Red Sox	150	621	189	128	35	6	20	123	94	76	71	19	8	.304
2005	Red Sox	148	624	197	146	35	6	10	117	75	53	69	18	1	.316
2006	Yankees	149	593	169	105	35	5	24	115	80	67	85	25	10	.285
2007	Bill James	154	627	179	123	35	4	17	115	75	68	82	22	8	.285
2007	CHONE		575	163	113	29	4	17	102	66	57	76	19	6	.283
2007	Marcel		539	159	107	31	5	16	101	72	56	73	18	6	.295
2007	ZiPS		611	177	125	31	4	17	112	88	60	82	16	6	.290

SEASON	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
2004	Red Sox	10.9 %	11.4 %	1.07	.380	.477	.857	.172	.319
2005	Red Sox	7.8 %	11.1 %	0.77	.366	.439	.805	.123	.343
2006	Yankees	10.2 %	14.3 %	0.79	.359	.482	.841	.197	.300
2007	Bill James	9.8 %	13.1 %	0.83	.358	.435	.794	.150	.307
2007	CHONE	9.0 %	13.2 %	0.75	.351	.437	.788	.153	.303
2007	Marcel	9.4 %	13.5 %	0.77	.362	.460	.822	.165	.318
2007	ZiPS	8.9 %	13.4 %	0.73	.353	.437	.790	.147	.313

Outlook: I'll be the first to admit that I wasn't enamored with the Damon signing. It's not that I really disliked the man (how could I? I don't know him nor have I read his book) but it was very hard to imagine the guy in pinstripes. Now, after going through a full year of Damon on the field and in the clubhouse, it's getting pretty hard to dislike the guy. He plays hard, gets along with his teammates and entertains the fans all while enjoying life. How can you frown at that?

That being said, Damon's first year in pinstripes was an interesting one. As the first in a long line of very good hitters, Damon was expected to get on base and take pitches and (which he did for the most part, to the tune of a .359 OBP and 4.09 pitches per plate appearance). However, what really impressed me was what he did when Yankees started dropping like flies. It was fairly shortly after Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui both went down that Damon admitted that he had a broken bone in his foot (this was on top of shoulder troubles). You can call it brave or call it fool-hardy but rather than missing time (or hitting the DL), Damon stayed in the lineup pretty much every day and boy, did he produce, showing no ill effects from moving away from Fenway Park and rocking 24 HRs (13 at home, all to right field) while maintaining the other skills that netted him $52 million. Actually, when you look at it, his full year numbers would have been even better across the board (.300/.370/.508) if he hadn't had a bit of a swoon in the last few weeks of the year (mostly due to his injuries catching up with him and probably sheer exhaustion). Torre & Damon showed little hesitation about running once Damon got on base and while his CS rate was much higher than in past year, he managed to swipe 25 bags.

It will be hard for Damon to top this performance but after a year's worth of adjustment to NY, Jeter still behind him as protection and with a healthy (leaner) body (and Melky ready, willing and able to rest him), it's hard not to expect more of the same from Johnny.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG

Not really a surprise. Phil Hughes will start the season at Scranton.

Hideki Matsui
Age: 32 Years Old (Turns 33 in June).

Three-year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	G	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2004	Yankees	162	584	174	107	34	2	31	109	108	88	103	3	0	.298
2005	Yankees	162	629	192	121	45	3	23	108	116	63	78	2	2	.305
2006	Yankees	51	172	52	35	9	0	8	32	29	27	23	1	0	.302
2007	BillJames	129	485	147	92	29	1	25	87	90	75	76	2	1	.303
2007	CHONE		447	129	84	26	1	18	69	64	51	66	2	1	.289
2007	Marcel		326	97	62	20	1	14	57	57	39	50	2	1	.298
2007	ZiPS		498	146	95	31	1	19	85	100	58	77	1	1	.293

SEASON	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
2004	Yankees	13.1 %	17.6 %	0.85	.390	.522	.912	.224	.318
2005	Yankees	9.1 %	12.4 %	0.81	.367	.496	.863	.191	.320
2006	Yankees	13.6 %	13.4 %	1.17	.393	.494	.887	.192	.312
2007	Bill James	13.4 %	15.7 %	0.99	.399	.522	.920	.219	.318
2007	CHONE	10.2 %	14.8 %	0.77	.364	.472	.836	.183	.306
2007	Marcel	10.7 %	15.3 %	0.78	.372	.494	.866	.196	.317
2007	ZiPS	10.4 %	15.5 %	0.75	.367	.474	.841	.181	.316

Outlook: Hideki Matsui was the model of reliability over the course of his career and maintained very impressive consecutive games streaks both in MLB (518 games) and combined with his Japanese league experience (1,768 games). Those streaks came to a crashing end on May 11th against the Red Sox when Godzilla dove for a ball and ended up severely hurting his wrist. Now, wrist injuries are a dangerous thing as they can linger and often take quite a long time to recover from (just ask Nick Johnson). However, it is a testament to both Matsui's resilience and work ethic that he was able to heal, get himself into playing condition before the end of the season and then tattoo the ball on his return.

In any case, it's a little surprising that 4 years into his Yankees tenure, I'm still not entirely sure what to expect from Godzilla. He was a ground-ball machine in his first season, then showed a big-time jump in power in the midst of a great season in 2004 and while his power numbers slumped in 2005, Godzilla set career highs in batting average (.306), hits (192), doubles (45), triples (3), RBI (116) and total bases (312). So, you have one down year, one high year and one year in the middle (leaning towards higher). Last year, In his limited playing time, Matsui displayed the same amount of power that he had in 2005 and a better batting eye (much more in line with his stellar 2004). In addition, he ended up hitting far more flyballs than he had at any time in his career while showing struggles against left-handers for the first time in his career. Now, whether those numbers were just a statistical anomoly is something that we won't be completely sure of until the year is over. Whatever happens, it's great to see Godzilla ready to play the full season and with his determination, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he felt he needed to redeem himself for last year and make up for lost time.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG

A-Rod was on Mike and the Mad Dog (listen here) to talk about his situation, contract, etc.

From Cliff:

Some cuts were made yesterday after the Yankees loss. They are Eric Duncan, Brett Gardner, Alberto Gonzalez, Steven Jackson, Jeff Kennard, Juan Miranda, Jose Tabata and Kevin Whelan.

Via Peter Abraham.

Peter Abraham mentioned that Don Mattingly's father has passed away. He will be away from the team for a few days. Our thoughts are with him and his family.

I just wanted to post a reminder, for anyone who is into fantasy baseball, please take a look at the YanksBlog.com Fantasy Baseball League. It's drafting on the 16th. If you do join, please don't forget to e-mail me. Thanks.

Our next interview is with Benjamin Kabak of River Ave. Blues.

When you aren't doing something related to or depending on the Yankees, what are you up to?

When I'm not thinking or dreaming about the Yankees, discussing baseball, watching baseball or sitting at Yankee Stadium, I'm working at my day job for one of the major sports leagues. I'm also blogging on the New York City subways at Second Ave. Sagas. Being from New York, I'm a big fan of things very New York specific. I love the subways; I love the Yankees. And I'm glad I've been able to share my passion for both with readers of my blogs.

» Read More

Peter Abraham has a picture of Hideki shaking hands with Red Sox pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima. Quite the media event back in Japan.

Mr. Abraham also mentions Andy Pettitte's simulated game from yesterday. He pitched to 17 hitters. 9 of which were Andy Phillips. The other at bats were taken by Cody Ehlers and Justin Christian. He allowed 4 hits (3 singles).

The best part, I think, is that Donnie played 1st base during the game. The post mentions that Mattingly made a play on a hit by Phillips and scooped a low Jeter throw. Good stuff. Tyler Kepner also has an entry on the game where he observes that there were players wearing #6, #22 and #51 on the field... but none of them were who you'd expect and he has no idea who they were.

Commenter Mattingly fan over at Lohud points to the Rawlings All-Time Gold Glove Team ballot. Former Yankees up on the ballots include Jim Kaat, Donnie, J.T. Snow, Bobby Richardson, Derek Jeter, Paul Blair and Dave Winfield.

Finally, Steve mentioned that Robinson Cano is in the new New Era commercial. Watch it below:

Alex Rodriguez
Age: 31 Years Old (Turns 32 in July - Don't forget this; it's not like his career is winding down - this man has plenty left in the tank).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	G	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2004	Yankees	155	601	172	110	24	2	36	112	106	80	131	28	4	.286
2005	Yankees	162	605	194	116	29	1	48	124	130	91	139	21	6	.321
2006	Yankees	154	572	166	104	26	1	35	113	121	90	139	15	4	.290
2007	Bill James	159	607	178	106	29	1	42	119	124	91	143	16	6	.293
2007	CHONE		556	164	99	26	2	37	110	104	79	121	13	4	.295
2007	Marcel		521	154	96	24	1	33	100	102	74	119	17	4	.296
2007	ZiPS		589	169	110	26	1	32	108	126	88	138	16	3	.287

SEASON	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
2004	Yankees	11.7 %	21.8 %	0.61	.375	.512	.888	.226	.313
2005	Yankees	13.1 %	23.0 %	0.65	.421	.610	1.031	.289	.349
2006	Yankees	13.6 %	24.3 %	0.65	.392	.523	.914	.233	.329
2007	Bill James	13.0 %	23.6 %	0.64	.395	.552	.947	.259	.322
2007	CHONE	12.4 %	21.8 %	0.65	.392	.549	.941	.254	.319
2007	Marcel	12.4 %	22.8 %	0.62	.390	.536	.925	.240	.328
2007	ZiPS	13.0 %	23.4 %	0.64	.387	.497	.884	.210	.327

Outlook: First off, let me apologize. It was our fault that A-Rod had the season that he had. Our very optimistic predictions for what he would do last year was the straw that broke the camel's back. He can take a lot...but the burden of trying to reach our expectations did him in. Luckily, he & I have sat down and talked about realistic goals to make this relationship work.

In all seriousness though, last season wasn't a great one for Alex. Still, the man finished with a .290 /.392/.523/.915 line with 35 HRs, 121 RBIs and 140 OPS+. It's only because of A-Rod's stratospheric highs and immense talent that we believe that 2005 was a "bad year". He went through his share of struggles and was (in my mind) unfairly reprimanded by fans, by Joe Torre (#8 slot...that was not very classy, Joe) and MLB (Joe Crede miraculously wins the Silver Slugger).

As a result of all this negativity, I've run into a lot of people who are really down on Alex and what he provides to the Yankees...to which I have to reply...really? You're going to start to devalue A-Rod already? I mean, come on. He had one very bad month in June of last year. Here's an interesting little exercise; take out those 22 horrible, no good games in July and look at his numbers before that stretch (.303/.404/.554/.958 with a HR every 15 ABs) and after (.306/.398/.556/.953 with a HR every 15.16 ABs). Remarkably consistent, no? There isn't a rational fan alive who wouldn't take that performance from his third baseman every single year. Oh, and you know what I recall - there was another guy on the team who had a horrid stretch a couple years back (and for longer than one month too). If you can't cut A-Rod the same amount of slack, fine - at least give him some.

In any case, going into this year, A-Rod's apparently lost a decent amount of weight and honed his approach at the plate with new batting coach Kevin Long. I think that the lower weight will really help him in the defense dept. (as will having his buddy Minky at first instead of Giambi). How it affects his swing is something that I'm probably not qualified to address. However, if a reduction in weight helps him to get the bat on the ball quicker, thus leading to more hits (depending on BABIP of course), harder hits and less Ks (as Steve L. points out, his K rate has been steadily increasing the past 4 years), I'm all for it; now go do your thing Alex.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG

Mike took a look at his team in the Yankees Bloggers League. That seemed like a good idea, so I thought that I'd do the same for my team. Here is how my draft went (round to the left, overall pick in parentheses):

» Read More

Derek Jeter
Age: 32 Years Old (Turns 33 in June).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	G	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2004	Yankees	154	643	188	120	44	1	23	111	78	46	99	23	4	.292
2005	Yankees	159	654	202	153	25	5	19	122	70	77	117	14	5	.309
2006	Yankees	154	623	214	158	39	3	14	118	97	69	102	34	5	.343
2007	Bill James	158	644	203	149	35	2	17	117	81	70	111	24	7	.315
2007	CHONE		593	183	130	34	3	16	110	70	61	98	18	4	.309
2007	Marcel		557	173	123	31	3	16	100	73	56	95	20	4	.311
2007	ZiPS		625	189	137	34	2	16	111	92	66	110	21	4	.302

SEASON	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
2004	Yankees	6.7 %	15.4 %	0.46	.352	.471	.823	.179	.317
2005	Yankees	10.5 %	17.9 %	0.66	.389	.450	.839	.141	.353
2006	Yankees	10.0 %	16.4 %	0.68	.417	.483	.900	.140	.394
2007	Bill James	9.8 %	17.2 %	0.63	.393	.455	.848	.140	.360
2007	CHONE	9.3 %	16.5 %	0.62	.383	.457	.840	.148	.349
2007	Marcel	9.1 %	17.1 %	0.59	.382	.463	.845	.153	.352
2007	ZiPS	9.6 %	17.6 %	0.60	.378	.440	.818	.138	.347

Outlook:In 2006, Derek had one of the finest seasons in his already impressive career. It was something of an upset that DJ didn't win the 2006 MVP over Justin Morneau (I'm not saying that Jeter was THE MVP...but he was def. more valuable than Morneau). It was a renaissance of sorts as Jeter put up the second highest OPS+ of his career and won the Silver Slugger at SS with the second highest batting average (second in the AL), OBP and SLG in his career. All of this while surpassing 2,000 hits in his age 32 season.

Derek started off last season with a bang with a ridiculous April and after a brief dip in March, remained on fire throughout the rest of the year. Seriously, look through his splits and it's fairly difficult to find instances where Jeter didn't perform. He hit well on the road (great at home) and against righties (he BOMBED lefties - nice little weapon to have to break up a lefty laden line-up, no?). Heck, his worst month was a .292/.360/.372/.732 line that he put up in May while the next lowest OPS was .813 in June.

So what do we have to think about when considering Jeter's contributions for the coming year? Well, for one thing, most scouts note that good hitters eventually learn more patience at the plate age. Seemingly, that seems to be happening as Jeter, who has always been a hacker, has brought his walk rate up to double digits and has now maintained that rate for the two seasons. Along with that seems to have come an even greater tendency to hit grounders. Jeter has always been a groundball hitter but he's really become more so over the last two years. For the moment, he can beat out some of those grounders but in time, that could prove to be a problem. Finally, you've got to start thinking about some regression to the mean. It's certainly expected (it's not often that someone maintains a .394 BABIP for an entire season) but you know - he's the Captain; it never really surprises me what he is capable of.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG

The Yankees Bloggers League drafted this afternoon. We've got 10 teams in the league. They're run by James, Seamus and myself, Joseph, Ben and Mike from River Ave. Blues, Dave and Aziz from Pride of the Yankees, EJ from Pinstripe Potentials and Pending Pinstripes and Jennifer from NoSenseWorrying.com.

The draft order went like this: Ben, Mike, me, EJ, Aziz, James, Joseph, Seamus, Dave and Jennifer. The first 10 players off the board were Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, Alex Rodriguez, Johan Santana, Ryan Howard, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Chase Utley and Miguel Cabrera. 13 Yankees were drafted in all. Divided by team:

Ben: None.
Mike: None.
Patrick: Posada, A-Rod, Jeter, Abreu, Matsui, Rivera, Pettitte and Igawa.
EJ: None.
Aziz: None.
James: None.
Joseph: None.
Seamus: Mussina.
Dave: Giambi.
Jennifer: Cano, Damon and Wang.

If anyone wants to take a crack at some draft analysis, I encourage it. :)

It was an awesome turnout with all 10 teams making it to the draft (Dave was a little late and Joseph came in about halfway through). It was a lot of fun and I wish every good luck this season.

From MLB.com:


As much as all of the winning, things like this make me proud to be a Yankees fan.

Robinson Cano
Age: 24 Years Old (Turns 25 in October). (If you see this and don't get a smile on your face, there might be something wrong with the Yankees portion of your brain.)

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	G	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2005	Yankees	132	522	155	103	34	4	14	78	62	16	68	1	3	.297
2006	Yankees	122	482	165	108	41	1	15	62	78	18	54	5	2	.342
2007	Bill James	149	557	181	117	44	3	17	80	83	23	60	4	2	.325
2007	CHONE		522	163	106	37	3	17	66	75	27	63	3	2	.312
2007	Marcel		476	153	101	35	2	15	69	70	23	62	4	2	.321
2007	ZiPS		568	179	117	41	3	18	81	97	24	68	3	2	.315

SEASON	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
2005	Yankees	3.0 %	13.0 %	0.24	.320	.458	.778	.161	.320
2006	Yankees	3.6 %	11.2 %	0.33	.365	.525	.890	.183	.363
2007	Bill James	4.0 %	10.8 %	0.38	.354	.506	.860	.181	.342
2007	CHONE	4.9 %	12.1 %	0.43	.350	.492	.842	.180	.330
2007	Marcel	4.6 %	13.0 %	0.37	.354	.498	.852	.176	.346
2007	ZiPS	4.1 %	12.0 %	0.35	.343	.493	.836	.178	.334

Outlook: After a 2005 season where Cano finsihed second in the Rookie of the Year voting, expectations were mixed as to what he could provide the Yankees on a consistent basis. His minor league track record was somewhat erratic, and though he had made several strides in his the higher levels, Bryan Smith over at Baseball Analysts didn't expect much.


For the first two months of the year, Cano was fulfilling that prediction, hitting a fairly empty .293 with 13 base-hits (11 doubles). Then in June, apparently something clicked and he took off, pasting opposing pitchers to the tune of .398/.432/.566/.998 and taking his OPS from .701 to .792. Unfortunately, in the midst of this hot streak, he strained his left hamstring and missed six weeks of playing time. Luckily, when he returned, he didn't skip a beat, absolutely tattooing everything in sight and putting up a monstrous .365/.380/.635/1.015 after the ASB. It was truly something to watch as seemingly everything that came off Cano's bat was hit hard. Robbie was an All-Star, won the Silver Slugger at 2B and even got some MVP consideration (22nd) and took over the title of best hitting second baseman in the AL. As for his defense, how good it is can be argued amongst fans but he was certainly better last year than he was in his first year. If he can keep up what he showed last year, I really doubt anyone will be complaining.

Of course, there are some questions still to be answered as Robbie goes into this season. While he was on fire for 3 full months last season, there are still some people who want to see how consistently good he can be. Also, he has struggled in his career against lefties (.278/.315/.365/.680 versus lefties and .334/.352/.538/.890 against righties) and on the road (.283/.307/.443/.750 at home, .349 /.371/.529/.900 on the road) and any adjustments he can make in both these areas will be closely watched. Still, this is just nit-picking when you think about it; he's improved in both those areas since his first year and any other team would take Cano in a heartbeat. Luckily, it's Yankees fans who have the pleasure of seeing a talented, home-grown product mature on the field and it seems the question is no longer whether Cano can be a good player, but just how good can he ultimately be?

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG

A fine morning indeed as I (and about 250,000 other cable households) wake up to read that the MLB DirecTV deal has been finalized.

The final insult was the transparent attempt to blame the incumbents, i.e., Selig's/DuPuy's "invitation" for InDemand to match the DirecTV deal: This is the dictionary definition of a fait accompli.

So this morning I'm in the strange position of being a loyal Yankees fan but detesting MLB, or more specifically, MLB's executive leadership.

The only way to change this is through congressional involvement. Call or e-mail your representative and senator on principle.

Congress should (now more than ever) revoke the antitrust exemption unless and until this blatant exclusion of fans is ameliorated. MLB, like a public company, has decided to maximize revenue at almost all costs: Fine. If MLB wants to behave like a public company, then they should be subject to the same regulations and market consequences.

Mark Feinsand:

In the Yankees 1-1 tie with the Reds yesterday, Mo pitched a 1-2-3 4th inning. During the inning, while facing Josh Hamilton, he threw two change ups. First, one to start the at bat and then another one that froze Hamilton for the strikeout. From the New York Daily News:


Yeah, everyone keep it quiet.

Doug Meintkiewicz
Age: 32 Years Old (Turns 33 in June).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	G	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2004	Twins-Red Sox	127	391	93	62	24	1	6	47	35	48	56	2	3	.238
2005	Mets	87	275	66	42	13	0	11	36	29	32	39	0	1	.240
2006	Royals	91	314	89	59	24	2	4	37	43	35	50	3	0	.283
2007	Bill James	100	292	76	50	18	1	7	34	34	36	47	2	1	.260
2007	CHONE		336	86	59	19	1	7	41	38	37	54	2	1	.256
2007	Marcel		361	94	62	22	1	9	46	43	40	57	3	2	.260
2007	ZiPS		329	84	55	22	1	6	41	36	42	51	2	1	.255

SEASON	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
2004	Twins-Red Sox	10.9 %	14.3 %	0.86	.326	.350	.676	.113	.264
2005	Mets	10.4 %	14.2 %	0.82	.322	.407	.729	.167	.244
2006	Royals	10.0 %	15.9 %	0.70	.359	.411	.770	.127	.327
2007	Bill James	11.0 %	16.1 %	0.77	.349	.401	.750	.141	.290
2007	CHONE	9.9 %	16.1 %	0.69	.337	.381	.718	.125	.287
2007	Marcel	10.0 %	15.8 %	0.70	.337	.402	.739	.141	.288
2007	ZiPS	11.3 %	15.5 %	0.82	.342	.383	.725	.128	.287

Outlook: What can I say about Minky? Well, for one thing, I will have a hard time spelling his name all season - I can guarantee you that much. Other than that, he's a Proven Veteran of sorts though the Yankees only really need him to be a proven web-gem providing, defensive whiz. As for his bat, well, for a first baseman, it's somewhat medicore but hey, considering what the Yankees got out of Andy Phillips, an average season of Meintkiewicz is a fairly good size step up. If healthy, which hadn't been the case for a full season since 2003 (last year that he had more than 400 ABs), he can be serviceable with a bat and is fully capable of putting up a league average OPS (or at least close to it). However, the health is a key part of this and though he seems to be recovered from his back problems, those are the types of injuries that always seem to flare up at the worst possible times.

Another issue to note is Doug's home/away splits from last year. At Kauffman Stadium, which is def. a hitter's park, Minky put up a .333/.400/.471/.871 line compared to a far less impressive .236./.321/.354/.675 line away from Kansas City.

Despite all of this and the very little power he has, you can still probably count on Minky to make contact and hit both lefties and righties. Still, the reason for his contract is based entirely on Mientkiewicz' first-base defense, as he's very quick around the bag, has very good instincts and is great at fielding throws (as A-Rod and Derek cheer in the background) so if he can just stay healthy and throw up his GG defense, a 90-100 OPS+ would be gravy.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG

Here's the basics of what we're trying to do. All of these posts will remain open until right before the beginning of the season.

Jorge Posada - Catcher
Age: 35 Years Old (Turns 36 in August).

Three-Year History, three-year splits and last year's splits.

SEASON	Team	G	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2004	Yankees	137	449	122	70	31	0	21	72	81	88	92	1	3	.272
2005	Yankees	142	474	124	82	23	0	19	67	71	66	94	1	0	.262
2006	Yankees	143	465	129	77	27	2	23	65	93	64	97	3	0	.277
2007	Bill James	143	497	132	80	29	1	22	70	89	78	113	2	1	.266
2007	CHONE		472	120	75	23	1	21	73	64	59	96	2	1	.254
2007	Marcel		452	121	74	26	1	20	65	77	64	93	3	1	.268
2007	ZiPS		417	110	69	22	1	18	59	84	63	93	1	1	.264

SEASON	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
2004	Yankees	16.4 %	20.5 %	0.96	.400	.481	.881	.209	.301
2005	Yankees	12.2 %	19.8 %	0.70	.352	.430	.782	.169	.291
2006	Yankees	12.1 %	20.9 %	0.66	.374	.492	.867	.215	.307
2007	Bill James	13.6 %	22.7 %	0.69	.373	.461	.834	.195	.304
2007	CHONE	11.1 %	20.3 %	0.61	.347	.441	.788	.186	.279
2007	Marcel	12.4 %	20.6 %	0.69	.364	.462	.827	.195	.298
2007	ZiPS	13.1 %	22.3 %	0.68	.368	.451	.819	.187	.301

Outlook: I'll start off by quoting myself from last year's outlook: "I am still willing to give Jorge the benefit of the doubt that he hasn't completely fallen off..." Still, it was a little hard to project that a 34 Year old catcher would rebound from a 3 year consistent decline but did Jorge ever do it. He played 143 games (second most in his career) and put up the third highest SLG in his career. The man didn't wear down either, putting up his best numbers in September (.316/.386/.646/1.032) and after the break. In addition to that, he made several strides as a defensive player (which is surprising considering the man's age) and ended up with a 37.3% caught stealing rate, the best full-year rate of his career (by a large margin at that).

After going through the numbers, one funny thing that I did notice was Posada's lefty/right splits. Over the course of his career, Posada has wailed on all pitchers but has consistently had better averages, OBPs and SLG against lefties. That def. wasn't the case last year as Jorge pounded righties to the tune of .284/.385/.540/.925 and for 20 of his 23 homeruns (.263/.348/.380/.728 against lefties). You know what - I can't really explain that but hey, he faces more righties over the course of the season so I hope that it wasn't a fluke and that he keeps it up.

In any case, even after Posada's resurgence last year, you can't sidestep the fact that the man is a catcher and getting up there in years, so you know that there is a drop off coming. Now, the question really is how big of a drop should we all expect and when are we going to see it. I still believe that 2005 was an outlier - it was exceptionally bad due to injuries and bad luck but the trend is still there (and inevitable) - it's just not as steep as 2005 would have led you to believe.

Please post your predictions for the following stat line in the comments section:

AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG

Before I start in with the community projection posts, I wanted to throw up a couple of links that I found to be interesting. I've been pressed at work or I would have posted these a while ago because they're all well worth the time.

First, some sad news out of the St. Petersburg Times as Dioner Navarro and his family continue to face difficult circumstances.


Man, his luck has got to turn around soon. In the meantime, keep the former Yankee prospect and his family in your prayers. Hat tip to Dodger Thoughts for the link.

Speaking of prospects, Project Prospect listed their Top 30 Outfielders Under 25. Jose Tabata (#17) and Melky (#20) both made the list. Robbie Cano came in at #1 on the Top 10 Second Basemen Under 25 list as well as at the top of the list (with Howie Kendrick) of The Best Young Second Basemen of 2007 at THT.


Finally, I be remiss if I didn't link to this very informative post over at River Ave. Blues. In it, Mike A. enlists Fabian of RLYW fame, and EJ from Pending Pinstripes for a little Q&A about the Yankees farm system. If you like the minor leagues, go check it out as these three guys are among the most knowledgeable amongst the Yankee blogosphere (still an odd word to me). Seriously, I'm sure everyone knows Mike A. from IGWT fame and I've been reading Fabian's stuff since he was at Minoryankeeblog. EJ is someone I didn't really read until recently - well, that's not exactly true. It turns out that I had read EJ's work plenty of times when he used to post as "DownFromNJ", who has a very strong presence on a number of prospect site. In any case, I have been making up for lost time by reading his previous site, Pinstripe Potentials. It's a heck of a site and there's a lot to be learned there. If you want to get an idea of his writing style and his take on prospects, here's a good place to start.

Also, if you haven't checked out River Ave. yet, I would do so. I've been reading Joe P., Mike A. and Ben K.'s stuff for a good long while now and they are all funny guys, great baseball fans and good writers to boot. I expect to see a lot of good stuff coming from there.

"Pitchers are pitching, batters are batting, fielders are fielding and managers are mouthing platitudes"...and the YanksBlog.com community is putting together projections again. I'll admit it, I completely ripped off THT 's Dave Studeman's opening line in his article about The Hardball Times 2007 Season Preview. I'm not that clever...and it thought it was the perfect encapsulation of what spring training is all about.

Anyway, we will be repeating what we did last year with community projections (albeit with a later start) and if you don't know what that means, here's a quick little recap. For each player presented, we'll give you his three year stat profile (and an quick outlook provided by yours truly) though as fans, you guys probably know the stat lines and profiles by heart. Based on all that, we'll be asking everyone to post your reasoned estimates/optimistic projections/wild guesses of each players batting/pitching line for 2007.

I think we had a good time doing this last year and that we all learned something in the process (I personally learned that I err on the side of extreme optimism when it comes to 42 year old power left-handers with a bad back). For those interested, this is how the projections lined up last year: hitters, starters and relievers and comparisons to the actual results.

We'll be posting at least one player a day and you will have until the beginning of the season to weigh in with your predictions. The basic premise is that the more predictions we get, the more realistic the community projection will be. I first saw the idea in use over at John Sickels' Minor League Baseball site and with Mr. Sickels' blessing, we've brought it over here.

We're not doing much reporting on the spring training games, but the Yankees 6 to 5 victory over the Tigers improved their record to 5-0 and ended with an exciting moment: Bronson Sardinha's two run, walk off home run off of former Yankee reliever Felix Heredia.

Mo made his spring debut and retired the side, including two strike outs.

On March 11, the Yankees Bloggers Fantasy Baseball League will be drafting. We've got a pretty good lineup. James and myself, EJ from Pinstripe Potentials and Pending Pinstripes, Aziz and Dave from Pride of the Yankees, Mike and Ben from River Ave. Blues and Jennifer from NoSenseWorrying.com.

I hope to blog about the weekly matchups (at the very least, James and my weekly matchups, anyway) here at YanksBlog.com annd maybe some of the others will be blogging about the league, as well, as it progresses.

I wanted to mention it incase there are any Yankees bloggers reading this that would like to join up. If you do, please e-mail me and I'll fill you in on the details.

Obviously, we want to have an even number of teams so there are no bye weeks for anyone. For this reason, I'll be closing registration a day or two before the draft.

I'm looking forward to it (although I have yet to do any draft "research" ... i.e. print out the cheat sheets! lol).

Anthony McCarron has updates on both Bobby Murcer and Andy Phillips' mom.

Murcer has just wrapped up six weeks of treatments and is now resting at home. He'll be examinated on March 18.

Meanwhile, Andy Pettite, who has spoken with Phillips, said that Thursday was "a good day" for Phillips' mom. The article mentions that her accident involved an 18 wheeler hitting the passenger side of her vehicle.

Let's give this another try: team registration is now open for the YanksBlog.com Fantasy MLB 2007 league. Hopefully we have enough interest.

It's a standard Yahoo! league. It's drafting on March 16 at 7:00 PM ET. If you would like to play, but can't make the draft, your team will be auto drafted (you can pre-rank a list, if you'd like). After you join, please e-mail me introducing yourself and letting me know what your Yahoo! username is. If you do not e-mail, you will be removed from the league.

With that out of the way, here is the information to join:

http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1
League ID: 23258
Password: yb

Good luck. I look forward to it.

John Sickels over at MinorLeagueBall.com has a crystal ball up for Phil Hughes today. I think it's a little too pessimistic but at the same time, I am very cognizant that this is a 21 year old kid that we're talking about. I am also very much aware of TINSTAAPP, as is John, whose preamble really needs to be read and understood by all Yankees fans who are expecting Hughes to Clemens immediately upon arrival.

He has previously done this for Melky Cabrera and I'd like to think that most Yankees fans were all right with the Melky forecast. I can't say the same with this Hughes one though as there are far too many people expecting great (not good, great) things from this kid. Those are the guys who will be upset that this forecast calls for Hughes to only be a 192 win, 3.71 ERA pitcher.

Jim Baumbach mentions that Andy Phillips in a "serious" car accident. He has been excused from camp for "as long as he needs" according to Joe Torre. Our thoughts and prayers are with the Phillips family.

If you want to understand Mike Mussina's career a little better, I would strongly urge you to read this article over at THT. In it, John Brattain compares Moose and Kevin Brown (don't boo and hiss just yet). A lot of Yankees fans forget how good Brown was in his career because of the many, many lowlights of his tenure with the Yankees. Heck, the year before he joined the Yankees - 14-9 with 211 IP, 184 hits, 56 BBs, 185 Ks and a 2.39 ERA (169 ERA+ - and he didn't even get one Cy Young point...though Russ Ortiz did - weird). In any case, John puts together an interesting article comparing the steady quality of Mussina versus the insane peak of Brown - very much worth a look.


I've said it before and I'll say it again - when it's all said and done, Mike Mussina should be a great candidate for the HoF. If you don't believe me, please read the linked article as well as this article by the previously mentioned Mike Green. If he can pull out a season or two like last year, even better - both for the Yankees and for his chances of induction.

Baseball Analysts is starting their yearly Two on Two series today with the AL East. The two writers they invited in today are Peter Abraham and Mike Green (Batter's Box - analysis and coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays). Sully, formerly from the House That Dewey Built, is now a part of Baseball Analysts so there is plenty of Red Sox-based opinion to read as well. It's a great read so head over and check it out.

I'm no lawyer so I cannot debate the merits of demerits of the following but did want to mention it.


Oh and the quote of the day on the blog comes from another Yankee, Johnny Damon:


Heh. Come on Johnny, $58 million dollars so far and another $39 guaranteed over the next 3 years probably buys you a little leeway with the wife.

Jim Baumbach mentioned that Carl Pavano had a bullpen session and is ready to go.

Also, Peter Abraham reported that Torre said "more or less" that Villone is going to make this team.